中国固定收益研究：点阵图暗示今年降息3次，“风险管理型”降息预示降息节奏渐进

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core decision - making group led by Powell is inclined to cut interest rates three times this year, which is considered the basic scenario. Next year, due to the collective reshuffle of the Fed Chairman and regional Fed presidents, the dot - plot has limited reference value, and the Fed's independence needs to be re - evaluated. "Risk - management type interest rate cuts" imply limited interest rate cut space unless subsequent labor data continues to deteriorate [2][3] Summary by Related Contents Fed's Interest Rate Decision in September - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected at the September FOMC meeting, and the pace of balance - sheet reduction remained unchanged. The market focused on the subsequent interest rate cut rhythm indicated by the dot - plot and the impact of political pressure on the Fed [2] - The biggest change in the meeting statement was the clear indication that "downside risks to employment have risen", which was consistent with Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. In the voting session, most members supported a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and only the newly - appointed Miran called for a 50 - basis - point cut [2] Dot - Plot Implication - The dot - plot implies three interest rate cuts this year, which dispels the market's concerns about hawkish interest rate cuts. Compared with June, the dot - plot in September is more dovish, with the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 increasing from 2 to 3, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at one cut per year, and the long - term interest rate forecast stays at 3% [2] - There is still a stalemate in the FOMC regarding the number of interest rate cuts this year. Among 19 members, 10 support three or more cuts, and 9 support two or fewer cuts. Excluding extreme values, the dot - plot shows a 25 - basis - point parallel downward shift compared to June, indicating that the core decision - making group supports three cuts this year [2] Economic Forecast - The latest economic forecast shows that the Fed is "cautiously optimistic" about the economic outlook. GDP growth is slightly up, inflation is slightly higher, and the unemployment rate is basically stable. This year's GDP growth rate is about 1.6%, next year it is 1.8%; overall PCE inflation is 3.0% this year, expected to drop to 2.6% in 2026 and approach 2.1% in 2028; the unemployment rate is about 4.5% at the end of the year and will decline slightly thereafter [2] - Interest rate cuts in this context may reflect that the Fed believes that a faster approach to the neutral interest rate can hedge against the downward pressure on employment and growth without significantly sacrificing price stability [2] Reasons for "Risk - Management Type Interest Rate Cuts" - The current labor market has a dual decline in supply and demand. Reduced immigration and lower labor force participation lead to a decrease in labor supply, and the rise in the unemployment rate reflects a slowdown in job creation. The "low recruitment, low lay - off" characteristic of the labor market makes the Fed adopt "risk - management type interest rate cuts" [6] - The slow transfer of inflation provides room for interest rate cuts. The expected impact of tariffs is a "one - time price - level increase", and companies between exporters and consumers bear the tariff costs. With the weakening of the labor market, the risk of continuous inflation further decreases, allowing the Fed to shift its policy focus [6] Focus on Fed's Independence - Powell emphasized at the press conference that the Fed works based on the latest data and does not consider other factors. The 12 - member rotating voting system requires a strong argument for a single voter to persuade others [6] - When asked about including the "moderate long - term interest rate" as a third mission, Powell stated that the Fed has a dual mission, and the moderate long - term interest rate is a natural result of stable inflation and maximum employment, and will not be incorporated into the policy - making framework [6]