黑色商品日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to experience narrow - range consolidation. The output of building materials has slightly declined, inventory accumulation has slowed down, and apparent demand has slightly increased. However, the significant year - on - year increase in rebar output in August has a certain negative impact on market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply is increasing, demand is rising after production resumption, and inventories at ports and steel mills are increasing. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range oscillations. For coking coal, supply is gradually recovering but still slightly tight, and downstream procurement has increased. For coke, production at coke enterprises is stable, and demand from steel mills is maintained, but steel mill inventories are at a medium - high level [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to be oscillating with a slightly upward trend. Their supply is at a high level, demand is limited, and inventories are accumulating. They mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views | Variety | Price Change | Supply and Demand Situation | Market Outlook | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Steel | The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3168 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.71 million lots in positions. Spot prices were basically stable, and trading volume declined. National building material output decreased by 3.18 million tons to 405.92 million tons, social inventory increased by 10.06 million tons to 662.27 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.89 million tons to 314.15 million tons, and apparent demand increased by 5.7 million tons to 243.78 million tons [1]. | Building material output slightly declined, inventory accumulation slowed down, and apparent demand slightly increased. In August, China's rebar output was 15.412 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; the cumulative output from January to August was 128.678 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [1]. | Narrow - range consolidation [1]. | | Iron Ore | The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an increase of 2,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices of mainstream varieties declined [1]. | Australian shipments increased, Brazilian shipments rebounded from the bottom, and shipments from other countries increased. After production resumption following restrictions, pig iron output increased to 2.4055 million tons. The profitability rate of steel mills continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons, and steel mill inventories increased by 530,000 tons [1]. | Narrow - range oscillation [1]. | | Coking Coal | The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1233 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a decrease of 3070 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas increased [1]. | Supply at production areas was gradually recovering but still slightly tight. Recently, the prices of finished products slightly increased, and market sentiment improved slightly. Some downstream coke enterprises replenished inventory due to low inventory levels [1]. | Wide - range oscillation [1]. | | Coke | The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1734.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%), with a decrease of 365 lots in positions. Port spot prices were stable [1]. | Coke enterprises' production was stable, and shipments were smooth. Some coke enterprises' in - factory inventories continued to increase, but overall coke inventory was still at a low level. Downstream steel mills continued to resume production, and pig iron output continued to rise, maintaining rigid demand for coke. Currently, most steel mill coke inventories were at medium - high levels, and the procurement strategy was mainly on - demand [1]. | Wide - range oscillation [1]. | | Manganese Silicon | The manganese silicon futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5990 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 8872 lots to 326,800 lots. Market prices in various regions were 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. | In the short term, supply remained at a high level and was difficult to significantly decrease. The final price of the mainstream steel tender had not been determined, indicating some differences between upstream and downstream. The demand of sample steel mills for manganese silicon decreased for two consecutive weeks on a week - on - week basis, and demand - side support was limited. The inventory level of sample enterprises was gradually accumulating, increasing for two consecutive weeks on a week - on - week basis [1]. | Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [1]. | | Silicon Iron | The silicon iron futures price oscillated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5766 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.24%, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 4542 lots to 207,900 lots. Aggregate prices in various regions were about 5350 - 5400 yuan/ton, and prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. | Silicon iron weekly output remained at a relatively high level and was difficult to significantly decrease in the short term. The quantity of the mainstream steel tender increased while the price decreased, and other steel tenders were ongoing. In terms of data, the actual consumption of downstream steel mills was limited, and demand - side driving force was not strong. The inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises reached a new high in the same period in recent years [3]. | Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3]. | 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various varieties, as well as profit data such as the profit of the rebar futures market, long - process profit, and short - process profit, along with data on cross - variety spreads [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: It shows the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - Main Contract Basis: It presents the historical basis data of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][20][23][25]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: It shows the historical spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron contracts [28][32][33][35][37][39][41]. - Cross - variety Contract Spreads: It presents the historical spreads of the main contract hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [43][45][47]. - Rebar Profit: It shows the historical profit data of the rebar futures market, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit [48][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [54][55].