Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%[3] - The committee expects a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts for the year, aligning with market expectations[3] Economic Outlook - GDP growth forecast for 2026 increased from 1.6% to 1.8%[5] - Unemployment rate forecast adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[5] - PCE inflation forecast raised from 2.4% to 2.6%[5] Market Reactions - Following the rate decision, the US dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields initially fell but later rose, indicating a hawkish interpretation[6] - Gold prices experienced a similar pattern, initially rising before declining overall[6] Committee Dynamics - Only one member, Stephen Milan, advocated for a 50 basis point cut, highlighting the independence of the Federal Reserve[4] - The majority of the committee supports the current 25 basis point reduction, reflecting a consensus on the need for cautious monetary easing[4] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected resilience in US inflation and a more severe economic downturn than anticipated[9] - Employment conditions may underperform expectations, adding uncertainty to the economic outlook[9]
2025年9月FOMC会议点评：美联储重启降息，后续进程可能超预期
Shanghai Securities·2025-09-18 08:22