工业硅、多晶硅日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 17, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 8,965 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.06%, and the position decreasing by 1,511 lots to 286,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,461 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 125 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 53,490 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.09%, and the position decreasing by 1,545 lots to 126,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material and the lowest deliverable silicon material both rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 990 yuan/ton. There are mixed positive factors for industrial silicon, and the market has staged a phased recovery. The conference proposed setting limits on the comprehensive energy consumption of polysilicon and eliminating backward production capacity through capacity replacement, and establishing a red-yellow-green light warning system for subsequent supply-demand regulation. The overall regulatory intensity is more moderate than expected. New capacity expansion is restricted, but existing capacity indicators are not directly cancelled. In September, production continued to rise, and the inventory pressure of polysilicon remained, suppressing prices [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures Settlement Prices: For industrial silicon, the main contract decreased from 8,970 yuan/ton on September 16 to 8,925 yuan/ton on September 17, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the near-month contract decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, the main contract decreased from 53,670 yuan/ton to 53,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the near-month contract decreased from 53,700 yuan/ton to 53,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3]. - Spot Prices: Among industrial silicon spot prices, the prices of some grades in certain regions increased. For example, the price of non-oxygenated 553 silicon in Tianjin Port and Kunming increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Kunming increased by 100 yuan/ton. The prices of most polysilicon spot grades remained unchanged. Among organic silicon spot prices, the DMC price in the East China market increased by 100 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts increased by 24 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 130 tons. The inventory in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, and Kunming Port remained unchanged, while the factory warehouse inventory increased by 1,400 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 1,400 tons. Polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 29,000 tons, the factory warehouse inventory increased by 300 tons, and the total social inventory remained unchanged [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][25]. - Cost - Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [28][30][34].