Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the volume and open interest increased. The supply of rebar continued to shrink while the demand rebounded from a low level, but the downstream situation did not improve, and the strength of the peak season was still in doubt. With cost increase as a relative positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined with a daily decline of 0.89%, and the volume and open interest increased. The demand for hot-rolled coil showed weakening resilience, while the supply remained at a high level, the supply-demand pattern was weakening, and the inventory increased again. With cost increase and production restrictions as relative positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.12%, the volume increased and the open interest decreased. Supported by pre-holiday stockpiling, the ore price remained at a high level, but the demand resilience was weakening, and the supply was increasing. The fundamentals did not improve, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price was limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Dynamics - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, adjusting the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.0% - 4.25%, releasing a loose signal to cope with economic downside risks [8]. - In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, the output was 245,556 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%. The production of tractors showed different trends, with large, medium, and small tractors having different year - on - year changes [9]. - In August 2025, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In August, China exported 163 million tons of steel bars, a year - on - year increase of 51.0%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 1.225 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 52.2% [10]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,210 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 8 yuan. For hot - rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,400 yuan, down 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,445 yuan, down 12 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,040 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 yuan, unchanged [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 798 yuan, unchanged. The Australian sea freight was 10.60 yuan, unchanged; the Brazilian sea freight was 23.98 yuan, up 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 105.45 yuan, down 0.27 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 105.60 yuan, down 0.30 yuan [11]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,147 yuan, with a decline of 0.25%, the highest price was 3,176 yuan, the lowest price was 3,123 yuan, the trading volume was 1,727,718 lots, an increase of 485,624 lots, and the open interest was 1,999,684 lots, an increase of 36,313 lots [15]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,354 yuan, with a decline of 0.89%, the highest price was 3,400 yuan, the lowest price was 3,345 yuan, the trading volume was 661,851 lots, an increase of 160,913 lots, and the open interest was 1,412,324 lots, an increase of 20,862 lots [15]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 800.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.12%, the highest price was 809.0 yuan, the lowest price was 797.0 yuan, the trading volume was 308,247 lots, an increase of 53,979 lots, and the open interest was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots [15]. Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the weekly changes in rebar inventory, hot - rolled coil inventory, hot - rolled inventory total (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, 247 - sample steel - mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric - furnace operating rate, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, 247 - steel - mill profitable steel - mill ratio, 75 - building - material independent electric - arc - furnace steel - mill profit and loss situation [17][24][31] 后市研判 - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has improved with supply contraction and demand rebound, but the downstream situation is still poor, and the peak - season strength is doubtful. With cost increase as a positive factor, the steel price is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weakening with increasing supply and weakening demand. With cost increase and production restrictions as positive factors, the price is expected to show a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, supported by pre - holiday stockpiling, the ore price remains at a high level, but the demand resilience is weakening and the supply is increasing. The fundamentals have not improved, and the upward driving force of the high - valued ore price is limited. The subsequent trend is cautiously optimistic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [40].
降息预期兑现，钢矿弱势震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20250918
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-18 09:03