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Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 was in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot signaled a dovish stance with a possible 50 - basis - point cut within the year. The Fed is moving towards a more "risk - neutral" policy direction, and this rate cut has a "preventive" characteristic. The market will correct the pricing of monetary easing, and the long - term trends of a weak US dollar and a strong gold market remain, but market liquidity may be weaker than previously expected [2][7][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fed FOMC Meeting Overview - Interest Rate: The target range of the federal funds rate was lowered from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, a 25 - basis - point cut [2][3]. - Economic Situation: Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year, employment growth slowed, the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low, and inflation increased and was still slightly high. The statement removed the description of a "robust labor market" and judged that the downside risk to employment had increased [3]. - Dual Goals: The FOMC aims for full employment and price stability (long - term inflation at 2%), and the rate - cut decision was based on the shift in the risk balance [3]. - Balance Sheet Reduction: The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, agency debt, and agency mortgage - backed securities (MBS), and the balance - sheet reduction is proceeding as previously planned [3]. - Voting Disagreement: Among the 12 voting FOMC members, only new理事Milan voted against, preferring a 50 - basis - point cut. The voting result did not show a more divided situation [3]. - Economic Forecast: The median expectation of FOMC members is that GDP will grow 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year; the overall inflation rate will be 3.0% this year, drop to 2.6% in 2026, and reach 2.1% in 2027 [4]. - Dot - Plot: Among 19 FOMC members, 9 think there will be 2 more rate cuts this year, 2 think 1 more, 6 think no more cuts, 1 thinks there should be a rate hike, and 1 (likely new理事Milan) thinks 5 cuts. The median forecast of the federal funds rate in 2025 was lowered from 3.9% to 3.6%, implying 2 more cuts this year. From September 2025 to the end of 2027, a cumulative 125 - basis - point cut is expected, lower than Trump's expectation of 300 basis points [4]. 3.2 "Preventive" Rate Cut Initiated - Before the meeting, weak employment data, moderate inflation, and controllable tariff transmission led to a consensus market expectation of a rate cut. The 25 - basis - point cut was in line with expectations, and the dot - plot signaled a dovish stance. The Fed is moving towards a more "risk - neutral" policy, and this rate cut is "preventive" due to political risks. The meeting did not show an intensified internal division, and concerns about the Fed's independence have eased to some extent [7]. 3.3 Discussion on Subsequent Rate - Cut Path - Future rate - cut paths depend on employment and inflation data under the "risk - balance" framework, as well as political issues related to the Fed's independence. The US employment situation is complex, with short - term policy boosts but long - term structural problems. Data accuracy issues may increase the difficulty of predicting rate - cut paths. US inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, peaking around the first quarter of 2026. The scope for further rate cuts within the year is limited, and in the base case, the rate - cut space in 2025 is about 50 - 75 basis points [8][10][12]. 3.4 Market Impact - Mainstream asset prices have largely priced in a 25 - or 50 - basis - point rate cut. After the rate - cut decision, market sentiment declined, with gold prices rising then falling, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar index showing a V - shaped reversal. The long - term trends of a weak US dollar and a strong gold market remain, but the market will correct the pricing of monetary easing, and market liquidity may be weaker than expected [13].