利多预期兑现能化震荡偏弱：橡胶甲醇原油

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a significant decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted. The rubber market has shifted to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. Suppressed by the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [4]. - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, downward volatility, and a slight decline on Thursday. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled, the short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the market has shifted to a weak supply - demand fundamental. It is expected that the contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend in the future [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons or 0.95% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.44 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.96 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.27 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points [9]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a week - on - week increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a week - on - week increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [9]. - In the terminal retail segment, in August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the automobile circulation industry's prosperity. The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released that the China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [10]. - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease from July and a 35% increase from 62,500 vehicles in the same period last year. In the first eight months of 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [10]. Methanol - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 81.20%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.52%, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%, and a slight increase of 2.21% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1,919,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56,000 tons, and a significant increase of 126,700 tons compared with 1,792,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.30%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 6.79%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 79.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 55.81%, with no week - on - week change. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.33% [11]. - As of September 12, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 225 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 138 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1,267,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 376,200 tons, and a significant increase of 365,100 tons compared with the same period last year. The port methanol inventory in East China reached 808,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,200 tons, and the port methanol inventory in South China reached 459,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,500 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 342,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,900 tons, and a significant decrease of 88,400 tons compared with 431,000 tons in the same period last year [12][13]. Crude Oil - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of September 12, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [14]. - As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 81,844 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts and a significant decrease of 40,219 contracts or 32.95% compared with the August average of 122,063 contracts. As of September 9, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 205,775 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 34,954 contracts and a slight increase of 3,457 contracts or 1.71% compared with the August average of 202,318 contracts. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, and the net long positions in the Brent crude oil futures market also decreased significantly week - on - week [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,050 yuan/ton | - 100 yuan/ton | 15,570 yuan/ton | - 310 yuan/ton | - 520 yuan/ton | + 210 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,285 yuan/ton | - 17 yuan/ton | 2,346 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | - 61 yuan/ton | + 13 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 466.3 yuan/barrel | + 0.5 yuan/barrel | 491.8 yuan/barrel | - 7.5 yuan/barrel | - 25.5 yuan/barrel | + 8.0 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 1 - 5 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][21] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 1 - 5 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][36] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position holding change, and Brent crude oil net position holding change [45][47][49]