农林牧渔行业事件点评：生猪养殖持续“反内卷”

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the swine breeding industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The meeting held on September 16 aimed to regulate swine production capacity, involving major industry players such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [4]. - The swine breeding industry is experiencing a "reverse involution," with policies focusing on capacity control, reduction of breeding sows, and limiting the weight of pigs at market [4]. - As of July 2025, the breeding sow inventory was at 40.42 million heads, slightly down from a peak of 40.80 million heads in December 2024, indicating a potential for further capacity reduction [4]. - The scale and concentration of swine breeding in China are increasing, with a projected scale rate exceeding 70% by 2024, and the industry concentration ratios (CR3, CR5, CR10) showing gradual improvement [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the current state of the swine breeding industry, highlighting the government's focus on controlling production capacity and the need for strategic adjustments among leading enterprises [4]. Production Capacity Control - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has set specific targets for reducing the breeding sow population and controlling the weight of pigs for market, with a goal to lower the average weight to 115 kg [4]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the breeding industry is still at a historically low valuation, suggesting that there are opportunities for investment as capacity reduction expectations grow [4]. - The long-term outlook indicates that leading companies with scale advantages and integrated supply chains are likely to increase their market share as industry concentration improves [4].