冠通研究：原油：原油震荡下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for crude oil is to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Although EIA data shows a significant unexpected drawdown in US crude oil inventories, the unexpected build - up in refined oil inventories eases supply concerns, and overall oil product inventories continue to increase. The US refinery operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points. [1][3] - OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and this 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions. The next OPEC+ meeting on October 5 will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter, and the IEA has raised the forecast of crude oil surplus again. [1] - Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for October shipments to Asia by $1 per barrel. After the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. [1] - The upcoming end of the consumption season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and OPEC+ accelerating production increase will lead to a weakening of crude oil supply and demand. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] - The previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil. [1] - Iraq and other countries have submitted a new compensation plan, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, and the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, which eases the pressure of supply increase. [1] - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased, and Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for now. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The investment strategy is to wait and see. The market situation is complex with factors such as OPEC+ production adjustment, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand changes. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to short at high levels, but in the short term, due to the release of some negative news and geopolitical uncertainties, waiting and seeing is advisable. [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2511 fell 1.60% to 491.8 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 491.7 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 500.5 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 962 to 33,886 lots. [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of 2025. It has raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.22 per barrel to $67.80 per barrel, but expects the price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel. [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. [3] - IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.7 million barrels per day and its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 by 60,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. [3] - US EIA data on September 17 showed that for the week ending September 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected to decrease by 857,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 2.347 million barrels (expected to increase by 68,000 barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 4.046 million barrels (expected to increase by 975,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels. [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC's July crude oil production was revised down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its August 2025 production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. [4] - US crude oil production in the week of September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, and is currently 149,000 barrels per day lower than the record high set in early December last year. [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.671 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.95% compared to the same period last year, with the increase rate decreasing. Gasoline and diesel demand rebounded from low levels, driving a 4.33% increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products. [4]