螺纹热卷日报-20250918

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the black sector declined slightly, and spot trading was generally weak. This week, the production of the five major steel products showed differentiation. Affected by losses, EAF steel production decreased, and long - process production lines also shifted production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other products continued to increase production. Currently, it is still the off - season for steel demand, and the demand recovery is average. The reduction in rebar production has led to an overall inventory decline, while other products have seen an overall inventory increase. Based on the performance in the two weeks after the military parade, the steel demand trend is in line with the seasonality. It is expected that the hot metal output will remain high this week, but as the weather gradually cools down, steel demand may show some improvement next week, and steel may enter an inventory inflection point. Recently, there have been many market news, and combined with the previous decline of the black sector, the valuation is low. With the arrival of the peak season, steel demand will continue to improve. Considering the pre - National Day restocking, there is support for the black sector. If the downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. In addition, the content of the "15th Five - Year Plan" will also affect the market fluctuations. Therefore, it is expected that steel prices will maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term. Subsequently, it is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [8] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Market Information - Rebar Futures: RB05 decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 3204 yuan/ton, RB10 decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 3054 yuan/ton, and RB01 decreased by 21 yuan/ton to 3147 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract rebar disk profit decreased by 19 yuan to - 104 yuan, the 10 - contract decreased by 10 yuan to - 243 yuan, and the 01 - contract decreased by 2 yuan to - 134 yuan [3] - Rebar Spot: The prices of Shanghai Zhongtian, Nanjing Xicheng, and Tangshan Tanggang decreased by 20 yuan, 10 yuan, and 10 yuan respectively, while Shandong Shiheng increased by 20 yuan. The profit of rebar in different regions decreased, with Shandong's profit dropping by 107 yuan to - 492 yuan [3] - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: HC05 decreased by 32 yuan/ton to 3367 yuan/ton, HC10 decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 3397 yuan/ton, and HC01 decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 3354 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit decreased by 18 yuan, the 10 - contract decreased by 17 yuan, and the 01 - contract decreased by 17 yuan [3] - Hot - Rolled Coil Spot: The prices of Tianjin Hegang, Lecong Rigang, and Shanghai Angang remained unchanged. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions showed some changes, with Tianjin's profit increasing by 8 yuan to - 207 yuan and East China's profit increasing by 7 yuan to - 71 yuan [3] Part 2: Market Judgement - Related Prices: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3210 yuan (- 20), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (- 20), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3420 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3340 yuan (-) [7] - Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend, and consider going long with a light position on dips [9] - Arbitrage: Hold the 1 - 5 positive spread and short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [9] - Options: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01 [9] - Important Information - As of September 16, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The rate for non - housing projects increased by 0.18 percentage points to 61.21%, while that for housing projects decreased by 0.17 percentage points to 50.58% [9] - This week, the small - sample rebar output was 206.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 million tons, and the apparent consumption was estimated at 210.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 17.8%), a week - on - week increase of 11.96 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 3.58 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 326.49 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 million tons, and the apparent consumption was estimated at 321.82 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 1.08%), a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 million tons. The total inventory increased by 4.67 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products decreased by 1.78 million tons, the factory inventory decreased by 1.14 million tons, the social inventory increased by 6.27 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 5.13 million tons [11] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, and cost differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [14]