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瑞达期货豆类产业日报-20250918
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean market, it is currently in the transition period between old and new soybeans, with the spot market operating steadily. Future focus should be on the listing rhythm of new soybeans and changes in downstream actual demand [2]. - For soybeans in the international market, according to the September USDA monthly report, although the yield per unit decreased, the planting area increased, leading to a slight increase in production to 4.301 billion bushels. The end - of - season inventory increased to 300 million bushels due to changes in demand. Market expectations for an effective procurement agreement from the Sino - US talks are low, and if the talks fail, US soybean exports will face further decline and demand pressure [2][3]. - For the domestic soybean meal market, downstream demand is weak, feed enterprise inventory is low, and oil mill inventory is accumulating. Recent policies also limit the feed demand for soybean meal, suppressing its price [3]. - For the domestic soybean oil market, due to sufficient soybean arrivals and high oil mill operating rates, supply is abundant. Although there is some increase in demand from schools and canteens, overall downstream inventory and supply enthusiasm are general, and inventory accumulation restricts prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the main soybean No.1 contract was 3904 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the main soybean No.2 contract was 3660 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main soybean meal contract was 2993 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the main soybean oil contract was 8284 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan. The settlement price of the active CBOT soybean contract was 1043.75 cents/bushel, down 6 cents; the CBOT soybean meal contract was 285.7 dollars/short ton, down 0.4 dollars; the CBOT soybean oil contract was 51.78 cents/pound, down 1.42 cents [2]. - Contract positions: The main contract positions of soybean No.1 were 228,957 lots, up 2438 lots; soybean No.2 were 128,296 lots, up 2270 lots; soybean meal were 2,071,291 lots, up 1066 lots; soybean oil were 574,844 lots, down 13,601 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for soybean No.1 were - 40,493 lots, up 5031 lots; soybean No.2 were 1877 lots, up 2435 lots; soybean meal were - 743,277 lots, up 18,474 lots; soybean oil were - 117,616 lots, down 8302 lots [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of soybean No.1 were 7878 lots, down 44 lots; soybean No.2 were 100 lots, unchanged; soybean meal were 29,065 lots, unchanged; soybean oil were 24,544 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Prices - Domestic soybean spot price was 3980 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean oil in Rizhao was 8420 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; in Zhangjiagang was 8480 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Zhanjiang was 8590 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2950 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The basis of domestic soybean main contract was 76 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean oil main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan; the basis of Zhangjiagang soybean meal main contract was - 43 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans was 3812 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 4015 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - US soybean production was 117.98 million tons, down 0.14 million tons; the end - of - season inventory was 8.44 million tons, up 0.41 million tons. Brazilian production was 175 million tons, unchanged; the end - of - season inventory was 39.96 million tons, up 5.67 million tons [2]. - The weekly inspection volume of soybeans was 29,681 thousand bushels, up 12,997 thousand bushels; the weekly export volume was 233,601 tons, down 173,006 tons. Brazilian monthly exports were 6.75 million tons, down 1.4 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Port inventory of imported soybeans was 6,622,320 tons, up 18,340 tons; weekly soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons, up 0.0282 million tons; national port inventory of soybean oil was 1.203 million tons, up 0.002 million tons. The monthly import volume of soybeans was 11.6663 million tons, down 0.5976 million tons [2]. - The weekly oil mill operating rate was 66.35%, up 1.59 percentage points; the weekly oil mill crushing volume was 2.3604 million tons, up 0.0565 million tons [2]. - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9270 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the ex - factory price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Xiamen, Fujian was 10,240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The daily soybean - palm oil price difference was - 790 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil price difference was 1760 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the daily average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2636.84 yuan/ton, unchanged; the daily soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 313.16 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The weekly trading volume of soybean meal in oil mills was 823,400 tons, up 304,600 tons; the weekly trading volume of soybean oil in oil mills was 81,500 tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 29 yuan/ton, down 59.2 yuan; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was - 57.35 yuan/ton, down 52.05 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - China's annual total domestic soybean consumption was 126.8 million tons, up 5.1 million tons; China's annual food consumption of soybean oil was 18.8 million tons, up 0.9 million tons [2]. - The daily price of live pigs (external ternary) in Daxing, Beijing was 12.77 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the weekly expected profit of pig farming was - 52.03 yuan/head, down 16.26 yuan [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 28.273 million tons, down 1.104 million tons; the monthly live pig inventory was 42.447 million heads, up 0.716 million heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows was 4.042 million heads, down 10,000 heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal was 11.37%, down 0.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal was 11.36%, down 0.48 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal was 13.17%, up 0.61 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 11.79%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to industry analysts' surveys, as of the week ending September 11, the net increase in US soybean exports for the 2025/26 season is expected to be 0.4 - 1.5 million tons; the net increase in US soybean meal exports is expected to be 0.1 - 0.4 million tons; the net change in US soybean oil exports is expected to be a decrease of 5000 tons to an increase of 41,000 tons [2]. - In the production areas of Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shandong, the remaining inventory of local soybeans has been basically cleared. Most traders are in the equipment maintenance stage after inventory clearance, and some have turned to purchasing new soybeans from Hubei, which supports local soybean prices. The sales areas are also cautious, closely monitoring the listing process of new soybeans [2].