Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The Fed's September FOMC meeting cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the median dot plot implies a total of 3 rate cuts this year and 1 next year. The TC/RC fees remain weakly stable, and the factory seasonal maintenance plan will lead to production cuts in September and October. The supply of refined copper remains tight. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved, but the realization of the peak - season expectation remains to be seen. The SHFE inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, after the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was realized, the previous gains were partly given back, but the fundamentals are still tight. The domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, which will support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips moderately [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The previous trading of the Fed's 50bp interest - rate cut expectation led to a price increase, and after the cut of 25bp was realized, part of the gains were given back. The fundamentals are tight. The domestic copper production is expected to be significantly affected by the reduction of scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support the copper price. With the approaching of the double festivals, downstream stocking will increase, so it is advisable to buy on dips moderately [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower with a gap and fluctuated weakly, closing at 79,620 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China is 60 yuan/ton. On September 167, 2025, the LME official price was 9,963 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of September 12, the spot TC was - 41.42 dollars/dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.16 cents/pound. The 8 - month SMM China electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans, so the electrolytic copper production in September is expected to drop sharply [1][7] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 32,500 tons, a decrease of 822 tons from the previous period. As of September 15, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory is 76,400 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 148,900 tons, a decrease of 1,175 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 312,800 short tons, a decrease of 26 short tons from the previous period [11]
降息靴子落地，行情下挫
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:04