Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:03Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Due to repeated rainy weather in Henan, the drying conditions are poor, resulting in inconsistent moisture control of new peanuts. Currently, the supply of dry peanuts is still slow. The market trading atmosphere is sluggish, with small - scale transactions. Traders mainly make rigid purchases, and large - scale oil mills continue to wait and see, with low demand for pressing operations. Pay attention to the supply release rhythm as wheat - stubble peanuts are expected to be on the market in late September [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the peanut main contract is 7858 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 36 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 95899 lots, a decrease of 45810 lots. The open interest is 131301 lots, a decrease of 882 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 0 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in peanut futures is - 15571 lots, an increase of 3003 lots [2]. Spot Market - The main circulation price of oil - using peanuts is 7572.9 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.6 yuan/ton. The national average price of peanuts is 8300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The price of imported Sudan refined peanuts is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Henan common peanuts is 8400 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong common peanuts is 8200 yuan/ton, both unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - China's estimated peanut production is 19 million tons, a decrease of 21.7 million tons. The global peanut production forecast is 51.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons. China's estimated peanut harvest area is 4.85 million hectares, a decrease of 0.13 million hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of sample oil mills is 9.47%, an increase of 4.21%. The peanut inventory of sample oil mills is 65560 tons, a decrease of 7080 tons. The monthly import volume of peanut kernels is 9.6 thousand tons, a decrease of 18.17 thousand tons. The monthly export volume of peanut kernels is 9.01 thousand tons, an increase of 0.47 thousand tons. The processing profit of peanut oil in Henan is 74.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The processing profit of peanut oil in Shandong is 124.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton. The global forecast of peanut ending inventory is 4.24 million tons, unchanged. The global forecast of peanut crushing volume is 19.27 million tons, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The ex - factory price of first - grade peanut oil is 14670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil is 15300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly import volume of peanut oil is 41643.75 tons, an increase of 3026.9 tons. The monthly export volume of peanut oil is 899.44 tons, an increase of 263.77 tons. The price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong is 5940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong is 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The peanut oil - meal ratio is 4.33, unchanged. The annual forecast of peanut oil production is 3491.6 thousand tons, unchanged. The global forecast of peanut oil production is 6.28 million tons, and the global forecast of domestic peanut oil consumption is 6.24 million tons, both unchanged [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 8.19%, a decrease of 0.19%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 7.83%, an increase of 0.05%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.43%, a decrease of 0.85%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.43%, a decrease of 0.86% [2]. Industry News - As of September 11, 2025, the operating rate of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises is 9.47%, an increase of 4.21% compared with the previous week [2]. Key Focus - There is no news today [2]