Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:21Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report suggests short - long positions as the main strategy and recommends paying attention to the stocking situation for the Double Festival. The old - crop market in Shandong has relatively stable prices, and the profit of merchants in the sales area is relatively limited due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8,281 yuan/ton, down 1,008 yuan; the main contract position is 13,700 hands, up 2,317 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 83,396 hands, up 2,317 hands [2]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia remain unchanged. The prices are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively [2]. - Upstream Situation: The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2]. - Industry Situation: The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.7 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.38 yuan/kg, unchanged; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 16.32 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons; the capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apples is 0.04, down 0.01; the capacity utilization ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0, unchanged; the monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 63.284 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 15.892955 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.533065 billion US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.74 yuan/kg, up 0.44 yuan; the weekly banana wholesale price is 5.56 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan; the weekly watermelon wholesale price is 3.72 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Jiangmen Wholesale Market in Guangdong is 12 vehicles, up 0.4 vehicles; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Xiaqiao Wholesale Market in Guangdong is 16 vehicles, up 1 vehicle; the average daily morning arrival of trucks at the Chalong Wholesale Market in Guangdong is 25.56 vehicles, up 1.96 vehicles [2]. - Option Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 21.09%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 21.1%, down 0.19% [2]. b) Industry News - In the western production areas, the trading of early - maturing Fuji is coming to an end, and some late - maturing Fuji has started to remove bags sporadically, but large - scale bag removal still needs to wait. In the Shandong production area, the inventory trading is weak. Merchants are actively purchasing early - maturing apples for the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, with smooth sales and prices determined by quality. For the new - season apples, the supply of medium - maturing Fuji is gradually increasing. In some western areas, the color and redness of Fuji are average due to long rainfall and short sunlight hours, but the price of high - quality goods remains firm. The trading of Hongjiangjun apples in Shandong has begun, but the quality is relatively poor [2]. c) Viewpoint Summary - In the old - crop market, the remaining supply in the Shandong production area is concentrated in some townships. Some merchants continue to transfer inventory Fuji due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji and the poor coloring of Hongjiangjun, with relatively stable prices. The digestion speed in the sales area is relatively stable, and the profit of merchants is relatively limited due to the high price of early - maturing Fuji [2].