瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample, demand to stabilize, and prices to remain under pressure, but there may be variables with "anti - involution" hype. Short - term upward movement is still under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips for the soda ash main contract [2]. - For glass, the supply is still at a low level with a slight increase, and the demand is affected by the sluggish real estate market. The overall inventory has a destocking trend. The market may fluctuate around the demand side. It is recommended to buy on dips after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1306.98 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; glass main contract closing price: 1208 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1391918 lots, down 52376 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1291147 lots, down 13158 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 259926, down 12111; glass top 20 net open interest: - 203637, down 29650 [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 35 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 754 tons, down 286 tons [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 71 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton; glass basis: - 124 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton [2]. - 1 - 5 month glass contract spread: - 120, down 12; 1 - 5 month soda ash contract spread: - 94, down 10 [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1235 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; Central China heavy soda ash: 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton [2]. - Shahe glass sheets: 1084 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets: 1140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 87.29%, up 1.07 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 76.01%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 16.02 million tons/year, up 0.06 million tons/year; glass in - production line number: 225, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 174.71 million tons, down 5.04 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6158.3 million weight cases, down 146.7 million weight cases [2]. Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 352060000 square meters, up 48416800 square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 250340000 square meters, up 24673900 square meters [2]. Industry News - Multiple news including diplomatic meetings, state - owned enterprise restructuring, service consumption promotion, and policy expansion in certain industries [2]. Macro - aspect and Viewpoint Summary - In August, industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 3.4% year - on - year [2]. - Soda ash supply: domestic operating rate and output are rising, and some backward capacities may be phased out in the long run [2]. - Soda ash demand: glass production is at a low level with a slight increase, and photovoltaic glass has a small impact on soda ash demand [2]. - Glass supply: production is at a low level with a slight increase, and profit is rising due to price increase [2]. - Glass demand: the real estate market is sluggish, downstream orders are slightly increasing, and inventory is fluctuating around demand [2].