Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:17Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the I2601 contract rose first and then declined. The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year and the first in nine months. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil rebounded significantly this period, and domestic port inventories continued to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and molten iron output of steel mills were adjusted upwards. Overall, after the Fed's rate cut, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and the decline in steel prices squeezed furnace materials. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downwards. Short-term trading is recommended, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.5 yuan; the trading volume was 533,529 lots, a decrease of 936 lots. The spread between the I 1-5 contracts was 21.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was -33,064 lots, an increase of 385 lots. The number of Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts was 1,700 lots, a decrease of 100 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 105.3 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.58 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 862 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines was 848 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 765 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 3 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 48 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 105.60 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.30 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.32, unchanged. The estimated import cost was 863 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan. The global iron ore shipping volume was 3,573.10 million tons per week, an increase of 816.90 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,392.30 million tons per week, a decrease of 180.60 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14,456.12 million tons per week, an increase of 30.40 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 8,993.05 million tons per week, an increase of 53.18 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly iron ore import volume was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 19 days per week, a decrease of 4 days. The daily output of 266 mines was 40.68 million tons per week, an increase of 2.80 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 63.93%, an increase of 3.48 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 35.27 million tons per week, an increase of 0.97 million tons. The BDI index was 2,180, an increase of 26. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.98 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.12 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.6 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.85%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.20%, an increase of 4.43 percentage points. The monthly domestic crude steel output was 7,737 million tons, a decrease of 229 million tons [2] Option Market - The historical 20-day volatility of the underlying was 18.88% per day, an increase of 0.17 percentage points; the historical 40-day volatility was 18.05% per day, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The implied volatility of at-the-money call options was 20.47% per day, an increase of 0.11 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options was 20.90% per day, an increase of 0.64 percentage points [2] Industry News - From September 8th to September 14th, 2025, Mysteel's global iron ore shipping volume was 3,573.1 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 816.9 million tons. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,977.8 million tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 893.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 386.0 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 2,084.6 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 262.2 million tons, of which the volume shipped to China was 1,836.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 304.9 million tons. Mysteel's statistics show that the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills with the new caliber was 3,119.85 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 234.24 million tons. The total daily consumption of imported sinter powder was 117.29 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.43 million tons. The inventory consumption ratio was 26.6, a week-on-week increase of 2.09 [2]