Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:15Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand report is relatively bullish for the cotton market. Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 13,765 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 19,765 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 28,006 lots, an increase of 6,618 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 460 lots, a decrease of 70 lots. - Cotton main contract open interest is 502,082 lots, an increase of 10,790 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 18,718 lots, a decrease of 884 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts are 4,438 sheets, a decrease of 177 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts are 73 sheets, a decrease of 14 sheets. [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,319 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,795 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) is 14,258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan. - Arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 21,427 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 22,780 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, an increase of 540 thousand tons. [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference is 5,476 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton is 870 thousand tons, an increase of 13 thousand tons. - Cotton import volume is 50 thousand tons, an increase of 20 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 110 thousand tons, unchanged. - Imported cotton profit is 1,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton is 148.170 thousand tons, a decrease of 70.810 thousand tons. [2] Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 27.67 days, a decrease of 0.69 days;坯布 inventory days are 36.14 days, a decrease of 1.1 days. - Monthly cloth output is 2.7 billion meters, a decrease of 0.79 billion meters; monthly yarn output is 1.9915 million tons, a decrease of 73.5 thousand tons. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value is 1,516,175.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 10,495.5 thousand US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value is 1,160,400.9 thousand US dollars, a decrease of 44,419.8 thousand US dollars. [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call option is 11.13%, a decrease of 0.84%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put option is 11.12%, a decrease of 0.84%. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.93%, an increase of 0.32%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.16%, an increase of 0.04%. [2] Industry News - National commercial inventory is in a downward trend. As of September 12, 2025, total cotton commercial inventory is 1.2718 million tons, a decrease of 143.8 thousand tons (a decrease of 10.16%) from last week. - ICE cotton futures closed lower on Wednesday, with the December contract down 0.43 cents, or 0.64%, at 67.25 cents per pound. - The USDA's September global cotton supply - demand report shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, an increase of 231 thousand tons from last month; global consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an increase of 183 thousand tons; global ending inventory is expected to be 15.924 million tons, a decrease of 168 thousand tons. [2] View Summary - The 2025/26 global cotton output and consumption are expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease, which is relatively bullish for the cotton market. - Domestically, inventory remains low, market supply is tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and spinning enterprises' operation rate remains low. [2]