Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:15Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to be stable, demand will recover slightly, the Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, and there is still an expectation of a further cut next month. It is recommended to lay out long positions in lead prices on dips [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread was 45 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,005 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 US dollars; the Shanghai lead open interest was 91,530 lots, down 2,401 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 888 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 49,375 tons, down 9,843 tons; the SHFE inventory was 66,561 tons, down 273 tons; the LME lead inventory was 225,350 tons, down 2,500 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,975 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 17,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract was - 170 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 46.43 US dollars/ton, up 3.18 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, up 42 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 81.52%, down 1.04 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 35,900 tons, down 1,900 tons; the processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was - 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 815.37 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,137.5 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million units, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other batteries was 2,169.23 points, up 15.5 points; the monthly automobile output was 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 1.647 million vehicles [3] Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, with only Milan voting against and supporting a 50 - basis - point cut; Powell said the labor - market risk was skewed downward, and this rate cut could be understood as a risk - management rate cut; the dot - plot median implied a total of three rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and one next year, while Milan hoped for a total of 150 - basis - point cuts this year; Powell continued to implicitly express concerns about stagflation; the EU announced sanctions against Israel; Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a joint defense agreement; multiple Middle - Eastern Gulf countries followed the Fed in cutting interest rates; the Brazilian central bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15%, in line with expectations; the Canadian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, in line with market expectations, and removed the forward - looking guidance on rate cuts from the policy statement [3]