Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:15Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening labor market and rising inflation, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts this year and one next year. The signals from the Fed are mixed. In terms of fundamentals, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by multiple factors, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, but order recovery is slow. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated little and remained at a relatively high level. Most downstream and terminal enterprises maintain a rigid - demand purchasing strategy, with slightly warmer spot market transactions. Domestic inventory has increased, LME inventory has rebounded, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, there is a divergence in long - short trading. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 269,100 yuan/ton, down 3,440 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai tin is down 360 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 34,390 dollars/ton, down 360 dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai tin is 22,824 lots, down 183 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 897 lots, up 1,112 lots; LME tin total inventory is 2,645 tons, unchanged; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 7,897 tons, up 124 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 190 tons, up 5 tons [3]. 现货市场 - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 6,914 tons, down 290 tons; SMM 1 tin spot price is 270,200 yuan/ton, down 1,800 yuan; Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 270,430 yuan/ton, down 1,890 yuan; Shanghai tin main contract basis is 1,100 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 167.02 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars [3]. 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 175,710 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons [3]. 行业消息 - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and is expected to cut rates twice more this year. The Fed's September statement on the economic outlook has changed compared with the July meeting: it acknowledges the slowdown in employment growth, mentions a slight increase in the unemployment rate but still at a low level, deletes the statement that "labor market conditions remain robust", and judges that the downward risk of employment has increased; it believes that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut is not high, and employment downward has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point rate cut has not been widely supported [3].