Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:15Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening labor market and mentioned rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad have increased, the growth of zinc ore processing fees has slowed, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to larger profit margins for smelters and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and the supply growth has accelerated. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, the import loss has continued to expand, the inflow of imported zinc has decreased, and the export window is approaching to open. On the demand side, the downstream market shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity", the inventory pressure of galvanized sheets is not large, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has stabilized and rebounded. Recently, the zinc price has rebounded, the downstream maintains on - demand procurement, the domestic social inventory has increased, and the spot premium remains low; the overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen, supporting the zinc price. Technically, with increasing volume and open interest while the price is falling, there is a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see or go long lightly on dips [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,035 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan; the 10 - 11 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,943 US dollars/ton, down 41.5 US dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,818 lots, an increase of 13,547 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 12,728 lots, down 2 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 54,241 tons, an increase of 1,521 tons. The SHFE inventory is 94,649 tons (weekly), an increase of 7,617 tons; the LME inventory is 48,975 tons (daily), unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,010 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,790 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 24.36 US dollars/ton, down 16.97 US dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,920 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; according to ILZSG, the zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1,007,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 617,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 159,600 tons (weekly), an increase of 15,500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, an increase of 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, an increase of 24.6739 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, a decrease of 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.18% (daily), down 0.29 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.18% (daily), down 0.29 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 6.63% (daily), an increase of 0.32 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.84% (daily), down 0.09 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and is expected to cut rates twice more this year. The Fed's September statement's description of the economic outlook has changed compared with the July meeting: it acknowledges the slowdown in employment growth, mentions a slight increase in the unemployment rate but still at a low level, deletes the statement that "the labor market conditions remain robust", and judges that the downward risk of employment has increased; it believes that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut is not high, and the downward employment has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point rate cut has not received wide support [3].