Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:15Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term explicit arrival volume of foreign vessels at ports remains at a relatively high level. It is expected that the methanol inventory at ports may continue to increase next week, and the specific increase amplitude depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. - After the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant and the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing plant, the olefin operating rate increased this week. With the expected restart of the Ningxia Baofeng Phase III and Shenhua Xinjiang olefin plants next week, the industry operating rate may continue to rise. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2380 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2346 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of methanol is - 39 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. - The main contract's open interest of methanol is 942,904 lots, an increase of 106,296 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 168,632 lots. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 10,207, a decrease of 574 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 106 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 264 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 326 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 294 euros/ton, an increase of 2 euros. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 62 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.04 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 107.39 tons, a decrease of 1.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 48.39 tons, an increase of 2.31 tons. - The methanol import profit is - 2.07 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.04 yuan. The monthly import volume is 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 340,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 84.58%, a decrease of 0.26% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 43.13%, an increase of 5.4%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 4.86%, an increase of 0.03%. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 83.11%, a decrease of 1.13%; the operating rate of MTBE is 61.69%, a decrease of 0.53%. - The operating rate of olefins is 81.57%, a decrease of 3.15%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 912 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 12.3%, an increase of 0.7%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.38%, a decrease of 0.8%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 15.25%, an increase of 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 15.24%, an increase of 0.04% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises is 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.76%. - As of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous data. East China shows de - stocking, and South China shows inventory accumulation. - As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 84.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.23% [2].