Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 10:15Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, with mixed signals from the Fed. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts supply, increasing nickel resource supply costs. Philippine nickel ore supply is rising, but domestic port inventories are falling, leading to a tight raw material situation. On the smelting side, production is stable with some increases and new capacity plans, driving a slight increase in refined nickel output. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production due to improved profits, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, downstream buyers purchase on dips, with stable spot premiums and increasing domestic and LME inventories. Technically, with reduced positions, prices are adjusted, and trading is cautious, showing a wide - range oscillatory pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,940 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the 10 - 11 month contract spread is - 170 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. LME 3 - month nickel is at 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai nickel is 55,044 lots, down 3,785 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,890 lots, down 1,453 lots. LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, up 2,034 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 27,500 tons, up 514 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 25,866 tons, down 275 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) and bonded - warehouse (warrant) prices are both 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,760 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 189.18 dollars/ton, down 0.55 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 500.58 million tons, up 65.92 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,386.16 million tons, up 77.93 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 63.77 dollars/ton, down 2.08 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 22,000 metal tons, down 200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 38,234.02 tons, up 21,018.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 83.59 million tons, down 20.55 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 173.79 million tons, up 3.98 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 56.4 million tons, down 1.34 million tons [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts this year. The September statement showed changes in the economic outlook compared to the July meeting: it recognized the slowdown in employment growth, mentioned a slight increase in the unemployment rate while still keeping it low, removed the statement that "labor - market conditions remain robust", and judged that the downward risk of employment has increased. It also thought that the inflation level has risen and is still slightly high. Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point rate cut was not strong, and the downward employment trend has become a substantial risk. This is a risk - management - type rate cut, and a 50 - basis - point cut did not receive wide support [2]