多晶硅能耗新国标大幅收紧，行业产能或关停超30%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the solar industry, particularly favoring companies with lower energy consumption standards such as GCL-Poly Energy [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The new energy consumption standards for polysilicon have been significantly tightened, potentially leading to over 30% of industry capacity being shut down. The effective capacity of polysilicon in mainland China is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons, a reduction of 31.4% from the existing capacity of 3.5 million tons [2]. - The tightening of energy consumption standards reflects the government's strong commitment to "anti-involution" in the solar industry, aiming to eliminate outdated production capacity through higher technical standards [2]. - The report highlights that only a limited number of new capacities will be added in the future, with GCL-Poly and Tongwei being the only companies likely to meet the new standards [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The new national standards for polysilicon energy consumption were released on September 16, 2025, with stricter limits compared to previous versions [2]. - The new standards require existing companies to comply with level 3 standards, while new or expanded enterprises must meet level 2 standards [2]. Capacity and Supply - The implementation of the new standards is expected to significantly reduce the degree of overcapacity in the industry, although there will be a 12-month transition period that minimizes short-term supply impacts [2]. - The report anticipates that the new capacity additions will be very limited, primarily from GCL-Poly and Tongwei [2]. Stock Recommendations - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) with a target price of 1.59, indicating a potential upside of 14.4% [3]. - Other companies recommended for investment include Xinyi Solar (968 HK) and JinkoSolar (002865 CH), both of which are positioned favorably within the solar manufacturing sector [3].