中泰期货晨会纪要-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific investment suggestions for various sectors and commodities: - Macro Finance: Consider buying index futures on dips and adopting a shock - trading strategy; for bond futures, consider steepening the short - end and ultra - long - end yield curves in the medium - to - long term and buying bonds on dips [12][13]. - Black Metals: For steel, it is recommended to wait and see; hold a small short position in iron ore; expect coking coal and coke prices to fluctuate upward in the short term; for ferroalloys, take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term; for soda ash, maintain a short - selling strategy on rallies, and for glass, wait and see [16][18][19]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies; for zinc, expect prices to weaken; for lithium carbonate, it will fluctuate widely in the short term; for industrial silicon, test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts, and for polysilicon, trade within a wide range [23][24][25]. - Agricultural Products: For cotton, sell on rallies; for sugar, cover short positions opportunistically; for eggs, sell on rallies; for apples, wait and see; for corn, wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm; for red dates, sell on rallies; for live pigs, take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [31][33][36]. - Energy and Chemicals: For crude oil, consider short - selling on rallies; for fuel oil, its price will follow oil price fluctuations; for plastics, expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy; for rubber, hold positions cautiously; for methanol, trade with a shock strategy; for asphalt, follow oil prices; for the polyester industry chain, test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term; for LPG, maintain a short - selling view in the long term [42][44][47]. - Forestry Products: For offset printing paper, test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line; for pulp, observe port de - stocking and spot trading; for logs, test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective; for synthetic rubber, hold positions cautiously [52][53][54]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation, including the Fed's interest rate cut, China's service consumption policies, and the release of relevant industrial standards. It also provides investment strategies and market outlooks for different sectors and commodities based on supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and market sentiment [8][9][16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, with over 90% probability of another cut in October. Employment risks have increased, and inflation is slightly high [8]. - China will select about 50 pilot cities for new consumption scenarios, introduce relevant policies, promote AI application, and use monetary policy tools to boost consumption. During the consumption month, over 25,000 cultural and tourism consumption activities will be held, and over 330 million yuan in consumption subsidies will be issued [8]. - Alibaba's self - developed AI chip was featured on CCTV, with some parameters comparable to NVIDIA's H20 chip [9]. - New national standards for polysilicon energy consumption will be implemented, reducing effective domestic polysilicon capacity by 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [9]. - A symposium on pig production capacity regulation was held, emphasizing the control of sow capacity [9]. - From September 1 - 14, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 4% year - on - year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 6%, with a penetration rate of 59.8% [10]. - Huawei released a report, predicting that AGI will be the most transformative force in the next decade, and the total computing power will increase by 100,000 times [10]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3876.34, with A - share trading volume increasing to 2.4 trillion yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. Bond Futures - The tax - period liquidity is tight, and it is recommended to steepen the yield curve in the medium - to - long term and buy bonds on dips, expecting the central bank to restart bond purchases in September and cut interest rates by 10bp in the fourth quarter [13][14]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy impact on supply is limited. The peak season may not bring expected demand, and steel is expected to be slightly strong in the short term and volatile later. Hold a small short position in iron ore [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may fluctuate upward in the short term, and attention should be paid to production progress and inventory levels [18]. Ferroalloys - Take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium - to - long term, not chasing short positions [19]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, sell on rallies; for glass, wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and glass supply may increase slightly [20][21]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - For aluminum, wait and see in the short term and buy on dips later; for alumina, sell on rallies due to supply pressure [23]. Zinc - Overseas macro - positive expectations have cooled, and zinc prices are expected to weaken due to increased supply and weak demand [24]. Lithium Carbonate - It is in a state of strong reality and weak expectation, with short - term price support from inventory reduction and wide - range fluctuations [25]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range, and test long positions on dips in the far - month contracts. Polysilicon will have a wide - range shock, with policy progress driving the price [27]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Sell on rallies due to supply pressure and weak demand. New cotton listing will increase supply, and downstream demand is poor [31]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is bearish, and it is recommended to cover short positions opportunistically due to abundant supply [33]. Eggs - The egg supply is high, and it is recommended to sell on rallies as the peak season ends [36]. Apples - Wait and see as the new - season opening price is expected to be high, and the market is affected by multiple factors [37]. Corn - Wait and see and focus on the new grain listing rhythm, with prices showing a regional differentiation [38]. Red Dates - Sell on rallies, with stable prices in the production area and weak sales in the sales area [39]. Live Pigs - The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies in the near - month contracts [39]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Consider short - selling on rallies as the market may shift to a supply - surplus situation, and pay attention to OPEC+ and geopolitical factors [42]. Fuel Oil - Its price will follow oil price fluctuations, with a complex market situation and supply - demand issues [42]. Plastics - Expect a slightly stronger shock in the short term and then a short - selling strategy due to supply pressure and market sentiment [44]. Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with cost support weakening and demand remaining stable [46]. Methanol - Trade with a shock strategy, as port inventory is high, but there may be supply disruptions [47]. Asphalt - Follow oil prices, with seasonal demand increasing and inventory decreasing [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Test long positions in the short term but expect a weak trend in the long term due to supply - demand pressure [49]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - It is in a supply - surplus situation, and maintain a short - selling view in the long term, with short - term price support from peak - season stocking [50][51]. Forestry Products Offset Printing Paper - Test long positions or sell put options near the factory production cost line, with stable fundamentals [52]. Pulp - Observe port de - stocking and spot trading, with stable production data [53]. Logs - Test long positions on dips if the price - holding is effective, with stable downstream demand [54]. Synthetic Rubber - Hold positions cautiously, with prices affected by macro factors and supply - demand [55].