蛋白数据日报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, while demand - side压榨 was increased and exports were further decreased. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 year was 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing some negative impacts. However, the US soybean balance sheet remains tight, with the good - excellent rate dropping to 63% this week, and it may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the producing areas [7]. - In September, the expected arrival of soybeans in China is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a inventory - accumulation cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume [8]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected to be in an inventory - accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have slightly decreased. Overall, due to the expectation of Sino - US tax cuts and the impact of the pig production capacity control symposium, M01 increased positions and volume declined today, the crushing profit deteriorated, and cost - side expectations provide support at the bottom, with an overall expected volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis (Zhangjiagang): On September 17, basis data for different regions and time periods are provided, such as Dalian with a value of 58 (25/26), Tianjin with 18, and different values for other regions and time intervals [5]. - 43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis: Basis data for different regions and time periods are presented, including negative values like - 22 in some cases [5]. - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: Data for different regions and time periods are given, such as 129 in Guangdong with a change of - 14 [5]. 3.2 Spread Data - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: Spot spread in the factory area is 300, and the spread on the main contract is 542 [6]. 3.3 International and Inventory Data - Soybean CNF Premium and Profitability: Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing profit data are provided, with the Brazilian premium having different values in different months and a change of - 6 in one case, and the crushing profit being 293 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory Data: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented for different years from 2020 - 2025, showing trends of increase and decrease in different periods [6]. 3.4开机 and Pressing Data - Oil - Mill Operating Rate and Soybean Pressing Volume: Data on the operating rate (%) and soybean pressing volume (10,000 tons) of major oil mills from 2020 - 2023 are provided, showing different trends over time [6].