银河期货花生日报-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term peanut spot price is relatively stable as the supply is still low and the downstream demand is weak. The price of 11 - contract peanuts is expected to have a narrow - range shock. The new - season peanut production is expected to be similar to last year, and the planting cost has decreased. Some peanuts have started to be listed [5][11]. - The peanut oil spot price is stable, and the peanut meal price has been stable recently. The theoretical profit of oil mill pressing is fairly good [11]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data - Futures Market: PK604 closed at 7870 with a 2 - point increase (0.03%), trading volume decreased by 50.00% to 6, and open interest increased by 0.23% to 439; PK510 closed at 7844 with a 26 - point increase (0.33%), trading volume decreased by 31.83% to 1,540, and open interest decreased by 10.38% to 9,450; PK601 closed at 7838 with a 10 - point increase (0.13%), trading volume decreased by 9.97% to 7,805, and open interest remained unchanged at 46,165 [3]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Henan and Northeast China was stable. In Northeast China, 308 general peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin were 4 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning, it was 4.1 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday). In Henan, Baisha general peanuts were quoted at 4.2 - 4.35 yuan/jin. In Shandong, peanuts in Junan were 4.1 yuan/jin. Imported Sudan refined peanuts were priced at 8150 yuan/ton, and Senegalese oil peanuts were 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton [5]. - By - product Market: The spot price of Rizhao soybean meal dropped to 2950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from yesterday. The price difference per unit of protein between peanut meal and soybean meal was relatively high, and peanut meal was weak in the short - term, with 48 - protein peanut meal priced at 3260 yuan/ton [9]. - Price Difference: For peanut inter - period spreads, PK01 - PK04 was - 32 (up 8), PK04 - PK10 was 26 (down 24), and PK10 - PK01 was 6 (up 16) [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today, with the mainstream transaction price before the stop - purchase at 7300 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills at 8050 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil were stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14800 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 11 - contract peanuts are in a low - level shock. It is advisable to wait and see for now, and consider going long on the 05 - contract peanuts after the price stabilizes [12]. - Inter - period Spread: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Hold the sold pk511 - P - 7600 [14]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures including Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill pressing profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot - continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread, all with data from 2022 - 2025 [16][22][25].