玉米淀粉日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report has lowered the yield per unit, but the production remains at a high level, causing the US corn price to decline. It may continue to be adjusted downward, and the US corn will fluctuate within a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. Although the import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, the domestic corn spot price is expected to decline with the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn [5][6]. - The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. Due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The C2601 contract closed at 2164, up 9 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 151,038 (up 22.66%) and an open interest of 445,010 (up 0.15%); the C2605 contract closed at 2231, up 7 (0.31%), with a trading volume of 11,113 (down 20.49%) and an open interest of 86,022 (down 0.13%); the C2509 contract closed at 2255, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 232 (down 23.43%) and an open interest of 752 (up 9.94%) [3]. - Corn starch futures: The CS2601 contract closed at 2487, up 12 (0.48%), with a trading volume of 35,769 (up 39.81%) and an open interest of 67,858 (down 0.83%); the CS2605 contract closed at 2574, up 7 (0.27%), with a trading volume of 348 (down 31.32%) and an open interest of 1,383 (down 2.47%); the CS2509 contract closed at 2596, up 11 (0.42%), with a trading volume of 9 (up 800.00%) and an open interest of 8 (up 100.00%) [3]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn spot: Today's quotes in different regions are as follows: Qinggang 2250 (up 10), Jiajishenghua 2180 (unchanged), Zhuchengxingmao 2378 (unchanged), Shouguang 2284 (unchanged), Jinzhou Port 2300 (unchanged), Nantong Port 2410 (down 10), and Guangdong Port 2440 (unchanged). The basis varies from - 75 to 185 [3]. - Corn starch spot: Quotes from different manufacturers are as follows: Longfeng 2700, Zhongliang 2700, Jiajia 2800, Yufeng 2990, Jinyumi 2850, Zhuchengxingmao 2940, and Hengren Industry and Trade 2780, all unchanged. The basis ranges from 126 to 416 [3]. 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 is - 67 (up 2), C05 - C09 is - 24 (up 6), C09 - C01 is 91 (down 8). - Corn starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 87 (up 5), CS05 - CS09 is - 22 (down 4), CS09 - CS01 is 109 (down 1). - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 341 (up 10), CS01 - C01 is 323 (up 3), CS05 - C05 is 343 (unchanged) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The US corn market is affected by yield and tariff policies. In China, the northern port closing prices are stable, and the northeast and north China corn spots are relatively stable in the short term. However, due to imports, auctions, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new - season corn, the corn spot price is expected to decline. By the end of September, the north China corn price may reach 2200 yuan/ton, and the Heilongjiang price may be below 2100 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot is weak. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 120 million tons, a decrease of 2.6 million tons from last week, with a monthly decrease of 8.95% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises will be in a loss state. The 01 starch contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [7]. 3.3 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls, with rolling operations [13]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include charts of various prices, basis, and spreads of corn and corn starch, such as the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and spreads of corn and corn starch futures contracts [15][17][23].