供应压力继续体现，盘面震荡回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the domestic and international soybean and rapeseed meal markets continues to be significant, and the prices are under downward pressure. The overall trend of the soybean series market is weak, with the price center expected to decline. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and options trading, and to close the position of the expanding spread of MRM05 [4][5][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Quotes: For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, 09, etc. declined, with the 01 contract at 2993 (down 9), the 05 contract at 2765 (down 16), and the 09 contract at 2882 (down 15). The spot basis in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For rapeseed meal, the 05 contract closed at 2357 (down 4), and the 09 contract at 2435 (down 6). The spot basis in Guangdong and Guangxi also changed. The monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends, with the 15 spread of soybean meal increasing by 7 and that of rapeseed meal increasing by 14 [4] - Cross - variety Spreads: The spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and between soybean meal and sunflower meal showed a downward trend. The oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract also decreased [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The carry - over stock of the old US soybean balance sheet was slightly increased. The new - crop yield had a slight decrease in yield per unit but an increase in planting area, resulting in a slight increase in overall supply. South American old - crop soybeans were in a state of loose supply and demand, with an expected increase of 1539 million tons in soybean production and 821 million tons in crushing volume in major exporting countries. The overall supply pressure of international soybean meal was significant, with an expected increase of 2153.6 million tons in soybean crushing volume in major producing areas throughout the year, while the import volume of major importing countries only increased slightly [5] - Domestic Market: The domestic soybean meal spot market continued to be loose, with high oil - mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and high inventory. As of September 12, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3604 million tons, the operating rate was 66.35%, the soybean inventory was 7.332 million tons (up 0.21% from last week and 6.35% year - on - year), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1644 million tons (up 2.48% from last week and down 13.54% year - on - year). The demand for domestic rapeseed meal continued to weaken, the oil - mill operating rate decreased, the supply of rapeseed was relatively low, and the overall supply pressure still existed [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - The Sino - US Madrid negotiations lacked clear macro - guidance, and the market was still worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, due to China's continued demand for US soybeans in the long - term, the price was not likely to drop significantly in the short term [8] 3.4 Logical Analysis - Soybean Meal: The main influencing factor of domestic soybean meal was the macro - aspect. The overall soybean production did not change much, and the inventory pressure was still significant. The Brazilian soybean production remained high, and the price was under pressure. The overall supply and demand of domestic soybean meal were relatively loose, and the inventory pressure still existed. Although the near - month futures price was not likely to drop sharply, the price was still under downward pressure [9] - Rapeseed Meal: The rapeseed meal inventory was relatively low, but the demand was also average. The subsequent import volume was relatively low, and the price lacked obvious fluctuations. The impact of market rumors on the supply side was expected to be limited [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Arbitrage: Close the position of the expanding spread of MRM05 [10] - Options Trading: Wait and see [10] 3.6 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans showed different trends for different shipment periods. For example, the crushing profit of the November shipment was - 91.34 (up 18.39 compared to yesterday), and that of the February shipment was - 43.20 (up 3.05 compared to yesterday) [11]