银河期货白糖日报-20250918

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, September 18, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D Report [1] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closing price 5,474, down 45 (-0.82%), volume 724 (increase of 499), open interest 1,376 (increase of 546) [5] - SR01: Closing price 5,474, down 55 (-0.99%), volume 315,458 (increase of 155,951), open interest 432,454 (increase of 44,260) [5] - SR05: Closing price 5,456, down 54 (-0.98%), volume 34,171 (increase of 22,477), open interest 52,980 (increase of 9,066) [5] Spot Market - Prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,960 (down 10), Kunming 5,905 (down 10), Wuhan 6,150 (unchanged), Nanning 5,840 (down 30), Bayuquan 6,100 (up 85), Rizhao 6,000 (unchanged), Xi'an 6,330 (down 10) [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 486, Kunming 431, Wuhan 676, Nanning 366, Bayuquan 626, Rizhao 526, Xi'an 856 [5] Spread - SR5 - SR01: Spread -18 (up 1); SR09 - SR5: Spread 18 (up 9); SR09 - SR01: Spread 0 (up 10) [5] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 15.51, quota - within price 4,452, quota - outside price 5,670, spread with Liuzhou 290, spread with Rizhao 330, spread with futures -196 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 15.51, quota - within price 4,410, quota - outside price 5,616, spread with Liuzhou 344, spread with Rizhao 384, spread with futures -142 [5] Group 3: Market Analysis Important Information - In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 62,700 tons. From January to August 2025, imports were 2.6121 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons (4.86%). From the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season to August, imports were 4.0739 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 277,200 tons (6.37%) [7] - In the second half of August, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 50.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.832 million tons (10.68%); sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 596,000 tons (18.21%) [8] - As of the week of September 17, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 85, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.2827 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 98,700 tons (3.1%) [10] - In August 2025, China's refined sugar production was 454,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.3%; from January to August, it was 10.284 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [10] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, global inventory is accumulating. Although the latest data shows an increase in sugar production, the international sugar price is at a low level, so it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [11] - Domestic market: In August, China's sugar imports remained high. Domestic sugar inventory is low, and the sales - to - production ratio is high. Affected by the international sugar price, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short term [11] Trading Strategies - Single - side: International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and Zhengzhou sugar has limited downward space [12] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13] - Options: Wait and see [14] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales - to - production ratio trends, Liuzhou sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, sugar basis and futures spreads [17][18][22]