国投期货黑色金属日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ (White stars indicate a relatively balanced short-term bullish/bearish trend, poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ (Two stars represent a clear bullish/bearish stance, with an obvious upward/downward trend and the market trend is emerging on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★ (Same as above) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, but exports remain high. After the Fed's interest rate cut, market optimism has cooled. The steel trading floor has support below, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by cost expectations and "anti-involution," and it's advisable to consider buying on dips. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices follow the rebound of the black series, but their highs are restricted by fundamentals [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Today's trading floor declined. Rebar demand improved, production continued to fall, and inventory decreased slightly. Hot-rolled coil demand declined, production increased, and inventory accumulated again. High iron water restricts further production resumption space, and attention should be paid to environmental protection restrictions. Domestic demand is weak, and exports remain high. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market is less optimistic, but the trading floor has support [1] Iron Ore - Today's trading floor fluctuated. Supply is at a high level, with a slight decline in domestic arrivals. Port inventory is stable, and there is no significant pressure to accumulate inventory. Terminal demand is weak, but high iron water production and pre-holiday restocking needs support demand. The market expects macro policies, and "anti-involution" affects the trading floor. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The price declined during the day. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts, but due to low profits, some coking plants proposed a first-round price increase. Inventory is increasing, and traders' purchasing intention is average. Cost expectations and "anti-involution" affect prices, and it's advisable to consider buying on dips [3] Coking Coal - The price declined during the day. High expectations of overproduction checks and "anti-involution" make the price relatively strong. Mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions weakened, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total inventory increased, and short-term production disruptions had little impact on inventory. It's advisable to consider buying on dips [5] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Iron water production recovered rapidly, and production increased to a high level. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory accumulated slowly. The price follows the rebound of the black series, but the high is restricted by fundamentals [6] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated strongly during the day. Iron water production recovered rapidly, and export demand remained stable. Metal magnesium production declined slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply recovered to a high level, and inventory decreased slightly. The price follows the rebound of the black series, but the high is restricted by fundamentals [7]