国投期货能源日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly stated, but the analysis implies a mid - term bearish trend [2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear bullish trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] Core Views - The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged, and short - term geopolitical factors may have a phased impact on supply, but the rebound space is increasingly limited [2] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the high - low sulfur spread has limited further compression space, and it is recommended to focus on the strategy of expanding the high - low sulfur spread on dips [3] - The bottom support of asphalt futures prices still exists [4] - The short - term oil price ratio of LPG is expected to be strong, and the bottom support of the spot end is good [5] Summary by Category Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SC11 contract falling 1.6% intraday. Last week, US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels more than expected due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25bp interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects [2] - It is recommended to continue to focus on the strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Today, fuel - related futures followed the decline of crude oil. Since Russian refineries were frequently attacked, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The continuous increase in the operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feed demand for fuel oil, and the incremental consumption of marine fuel in the Singapore market is also concentrated in the high - sulfur marine fuel sector [3] - The third batch of low - sulfur fuel oil export quotas in 2025 is only 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the third batch last year. Cumulatively, the low - sulfur export quotas in 2025 have increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. However, considering the low quota utilization rate, the low - sulfur supply pressure is limited [3] Asphalt - Today, crude oil declined, while asphalt futures continued to fluctuate within a range. Today's data shows that factory and social inventories continued to decline, but the decline slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. The warehouse receipts in East China warehouses decreased by 350 tons today, and a total of 3,050 tons have been reduced so far this week [4] - The downward pressure on spot prices in East China has eased, and spot prices in South China and Hebei remained stable [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Under the circumstances of strong import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. At the same time, the chemical profit margin remains good, and the high - operating - rate pattern can still be maintained [5] - It is necessary to pay attention to the peak - season stockpiling market situation, and the near - month contract of the futures market is relatively strong [5]