国投期货软商品日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Paper Pulp: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Sugar: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Apple: Short - term bearish, one green star, indicating a downward - driving trend but low operability [1] - Timber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Natural Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Unclear trend, white star, suggesting short - term equilibrium and low operability [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber, providing an overview of their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends, and gives corresponding investment suggestions, mostly suggesting temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures fell sharply, with spot sales mostly stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with a possible output exceeding 7 million tons. There may be a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, which may lead to competition among ginneries for purchase, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The cotton yarn market has general trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macroeconomically, pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's interest rate cut. Temporarily observe [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to decline. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, with less supply pressure than last year. In the medium term, the sugar - alcohol ratio, though falling significantly, is still at the upper edge of the historical range, so the sugar - making ratio in Brazil may remain high next year. US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is weakly declining. This year's sales rhythm is fast, with reduced inventory and relatively light spot pressure. The trading focus has shifted to imports and the next - season output forecast. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, but the output forecast for the 25/26 season is uncertain. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The demand for early - maturing apples is good, and merchants are actively purchasing. The high price of early - maturing apples makes the market expect a high opening price for late - maturing apples in October. However, the expected apple output in the 25/26 quarter has little year - on - year change, and the supply lacks bullish drivers. In Shaanxi, farmers are more bullish, and the inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October is expected to increase. It is expected that the futures price will continue to decline in the short term, and a bearish approach is maintained [4] 20 - number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, the prices of international crude oil and other commodities fell. The futures prices of RU, WR, and BR continued to decline, and the sentiment in the futures market weakened. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased last week. China's tire production and export data in August showed that the domestic tire market performed well, with an increase in the operating rate. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to decline, while the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is low. Temporarily observe [5] Paper Pulp - The paper pulp futures fell slightly, and the spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaved pulp were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper pulp ports in China decreased slightly, but was still at a high level year - on - year. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow. In August 2025, China's paper pulp imports decreased. Macroeconomically, inflation is expected to remain weak this year, and PPI has marginally improved. Currently, the port inventory is high, supply is relatively loose, and demand is general. Temporarily observe or trade within a range [6] Timber - The futures price fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The arrival volume last week decreased significantly, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased. Domestic spot prices are weak, and traders' import willingness is low. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. The total log inventory is low, with relatively small inventory pressure. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the short - term upward momentum is insufficient. Temporarily observe [7]