8月美国非农数据点评：鲍威尔暂时通过了独立性的压力测试

Group 1: FOMC Meeting Insights - The focus of the September FOMC meeting was not on the rate cut magnitude but on the independence of the Federal Reserve amid new member Milan's rapid joining and legal issues faced by member Cook[3] - Only Milan supported a 50bp rate cut, while Waller and Bowman, who previously voted against, aligned with the majority this time[3] - The labor market dynamics are worse than in June, contradicting Waller's earlier stance that tariffs should be excluded when considering inflation, which would suggest a larger rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections and Market Reactions - The median forecast for a rate cut in 2025 was raised from 50bp to 75bp, with only 9 out of 19 members supporting this, indicating a precarious consensus[7] - The FOMC's economic outlook was optimistic, raising 2025 GDP growth to 1.6% and 2026 GDP to 1.8%, while lowering the 2026 unemployment rate to 4.4%[10] - Powell's performance during the meeting was deemed satisfactory in maintaining the Fed's independence, despite political pressures from Trump[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Implications - Risks include increased political uncertainty from Trump, leading to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[6] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected synchronized easing, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[6] - The Fed's independence has resulted in gold being the biggest loser in the market, with a 10% increase in gold prices since the Jackson Hole meeting reflecting prior market expectations of reduced Fed independence[10]