Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 11:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. Although the inventory is high and there is pressure to digest it, the industrial silicon price showed an upward trend after rising and falling today, and it is expected to have upward momentum in the future. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract was 8,905 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the main contract position was 285,052 lots, down 621 lots; the net position of the top 20 was -56,524 lots, up 1,492 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 49,871 lots, down 25 lots; the closing price of the December contract was -385 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the November - December contracts was -385 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 445 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,020 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly output of industrial silicon was 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.54 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.09 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,908.89 tons, a decrease of 861.29 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 72.71%, an increase of 2.12 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.536 million tons, a decrease of 133,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News - Italy's "No.220/2025" decree came into effect at the end of August, and the 1.6 - gigawatt photovoltaic project auction under the "Fer X Transitorio Transition Plan" set new supply - chain standards, excluding Chinese photovoltaic modules, cells, and inverters, which sparked discussions about the upgrade of the European market access threshold [2]. - The important article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market" pointed out the need to rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: As the wet season progresses, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region becomes more obvious, accelerating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, while some large factories in Xinjiang maintain a stable production rhythm. However, some small and medium - sized silicon plants in Xinjiang have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to compressed profit margins, so the overall output in Xinjiang remains relatively stable. The supply side shows a regional differentiation trend of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest" [2]. - Demand Side: In the organic silicon market, the downward trend and reduced profits lead to a decline in the expected production increase, having a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, the inventory and operating rate are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. However, the limited price increase in the downstream and the expected contraction of photovoltaic industry demand in the long run may limit the continuous growth of polysilicon's demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, the inventory is rising, the price is increasing, the operating situation is stable, but the demand is average, with limited pulling effect on industrial silicon [2].