美联储如期降息，更关注就业风险

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0%-4.25% due to a shift in risk balance, emphasizing rising employment market risks[1] - The dot plot forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was raised from 50 basis points to 75 basis points, indicating a potential year-end federal funds rate of 3.75%-4%[2] - The Fed's statement removed the characterization of the labor market as "still robust," highlighting slowing job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate[2] Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 1.4% to 1.6%, and for 2026 and 2027 to 1.8% and 1.9% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027 was lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively, while the inflation forecast for 2026 increased from 2.4% to 2.6%[2] - The September CPI growth rate is expected to rebound to around 3.1% due to energy and commodity inflation pressures[3] Market Implications - The yield curve is expected to steepen, with the 10-year Treasury yield projected to rise to approximately 4.1% by year-end[3] - The dollar index may weaken, potentially dropping to around 95, as the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates while the ECB's rate-cutting cycle nears its end[3] - Lower dollar interest rates are likely to encourage capital expenditure in AI and benefit interest-sensitive sectors such as healthcare and consumer goods[3]