Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 11:38Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. The inventory of polysilicon is rising, but the subsequent increase is expected to be limited due to the industry's anti - involution. The price of silicon wafers has increased slightly, but downstream customers are hesitant. The weak terminal demand is affecting the market, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of the photovoltaic industry chain remains unchanged with high pressure on terminal transactions. The price is expected to decline, which will suppress the demand for polysilicon. Polysilicon prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the short - term fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see or arrange put options [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 53,205 yuan/ton, down 285 yuan; the main contract position is 122,834 lots, down 3,400 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,540 yuan, up 120 yuan; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis is - 605 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, up 0.09 US dollars. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding type polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change [3] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8,905 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, up 33,600 tons; the total social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of polysilicon is 125,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.14 US dollars; the monthly average import price is 2,190 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars [3] 下游情况 - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, down 1,004,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, up 21,456,820 units; the monthly import volume is 3,429,750 units, and the monthly average import price is 14,525.65 US dollars/unit, down 0.02 US dollars. The polysilicon sub - index of the photovoltaic industry comprehensive price index (SPI) is 30.34, up 0.62 [3] 行业消息 - Italy's "No.220/2025" decree came into effect at the end of August, and a 1.6 - gigawatt photovoltaic project auction under the "Fer X Transitorio" framework has started, excluding Chinese photovoltaic components, cells, and inverters, which has sparked discussions about the upgrade of the European market access threshold. The important article of Xi Jinping pointed out that efforts should be made to rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [3]