Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are recommended for long - term bullishness with a strategy of buying on dips, while treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading, and glass recommends buying on dips [1][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper suggests waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; aluminum recommends buying on dips after a pullback; nickel suggests waiting or shorting on rallies; tin and precious metals like gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][14] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash recommends an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][18][31] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate. Apples are expected to be oscillating strongly, and red dates are expected to be oscillating weakly [1][35] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs and eggs recommend shorting on rallies. Corn is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, soybean meal is expected to have a weak oscillation, and oils are expected to be oscillating strongly [1][40][44] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors are affected by macro - economic factors such as potential Fed rate cuts, while others are influenced by industry - specific supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy expectations [5][10][40] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Driven by technology manufacturing sectors, the index oscillated upward on Wednesday. The market may be looking for a clear main line of prosperity, and a structural market may continue. Fed rate cuts in September may create favorable conditions for domestic monetary easing, and the positive spiral of index profit - making effect and incremental funds is still in operation [5] - Treasury Bonds: After recent continuous recoveries, key - term yields are approaching important resistance levels. With the end of the tax - payment period, the return of loose liquidity, and the approaching end of institutional balance - sheet adjustment at the end of the quarter, the bond - market inflection point may be approaching, but there may still be fluctuations near the important resistance level [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking Coal: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices are rising across the board, and the procurement rhythm of some enterprises has accelerated [8] - Rebar: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The anti - involution expectation has resurfaced, and the black sentiment is strong. Fundamentally, the apparent demand, production, and inventory have changed. The futures price is near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. It is recommended to buy on dips, focusing on the support level of 3000 - 3100 for the RB2601 contract [8] - Glass: Supply - side production capacity has remained stable, and inventories have decreased. Demand has improved, and the market sentiment has warmed up. In the traditional peak season, there are positive expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1210 - 1220 for the 01 contract and buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has risen in the range this week. The Fed's rate - cut expectation is strong, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased in the peak season, and the supply is expected to tighten. Although there are concerns about high prices in the market, the copper price is expected to remain strong, and the Shanghai copper main contract may test the 82500 mark [10][11] - Aluminum: The rainy season in Guinea has affected bauxite production and transportation. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. Demand has entered the peak - season rhythm, but inventories have continued to accumulate. It is recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and shorting AL [11] - Nickel: The uncertainty of nickel ore has increased, but the bottom support is still strong. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron is strong. Stainless - steel demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and the price of nickel sulfate is rising. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [14] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in the off - season is weak. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the 260,000 - 278,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai tin 10 - contract [14][15] - Precious Metals (Gold and Silver): The market's expectation of multiple rate cuts within the year has increased, and the prices of precious metals have continued to rebound. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the 9700 - 10500 range and the Shanghai gold 10 - contract in the 815 - 855 range [15][16] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, and demand is affected by the real - estate market and exports. The inventory is high, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [18][19] - Caustic Soda: The macro - economic outlook is positive, supply inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and demand is expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2550 - 2650 range [22] - Styrene: The cost - profit situation is affected by factors such as crude - oil supply - demand and pure - benzene production. The port inventory is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on the 7000 - 7300 range [23] - Rubber: The overseas raw - material price is high, and the inventory has continued to decline. The macro - guidance has intensified, and the spot - market trading sentiment has weakened. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range consolidation, focusing on the 15600 support level [24][25] - Urea: The market's production and sales have weakened, and the price has continued to decline. The supply - side start - up rate has decreased, and the demand is scattered. The inventory has increased. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract and the positive - arbitrage opportunity for the 1 - 5 spread [26][27][29] - Methanol: The supply has remained stable, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has decreased. The inventory has changed. It is expected to have a weak oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [29] - Polyolefins: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak - consumption season, the downstream start - up rate has continued to improve, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate, with the LL main contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - Soda Ash: The spot market has improved, and manufacturers' shipments have been smooth. However, the production has increased, and there is a surplus in theory. It is recommended to conduct an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, and the macro - environment has become better. However, the expected increase in new - cotton production may put pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [35] - PTA: After the end of the US traditional fuel - consumption peak season, the demand has weakened, and the international oil price has fallen. The cost and supply - demand are in a reverse - driving situation, and the PTA has accumulated inventory. Due to planned maintenance, the supply - demand pressure is expected to decrease [36] - Apples: The early - maturing Fuji in the west is coming to an end, and the quality of the remaining goods has differentiated. The red - general situation in Shandong has some problems, and the inventory - Fuji trading has slowed down. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [36] - Red Dates: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The current consumption is weak, and the price is under pressure after reaching a high level. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [38] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: On September 18, the pig price continued to decline. The supply in September has continued to increase, and the demand growth is slow. The state may start purchasing and reserve - rotation policies, and there is still pressure - holding and reluctance to sell. In the long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 and 01 contracts and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on the 05 and 07 contracts and shorting the 03 contract [40] - Eggs: As the egg price rebounds to a relatively high level, the cold - storage eggs are being released, and the stocking demand is coming to an end. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the near - month 10 and 11 contracts or hold the 11 put options, and be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts in the short - term [41] - Corn: It is currently the transitional period between old and new crops. The trade inventory is not high, and the market is waiting for new - crop listings. The new - crop opening price is higher year - on - year, and the price is seasonally under pressure. In the long - term, the corn planting is stable, and the cost support has shifted down. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [43][44] - Soybean Meal: The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate around 1030 cents per bushel. Domestically, the arrival of soybeans from September to October is abundant, and the price is under pressure due to state - reserve sales, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the 2980 support level of the M2601 contract [44] - Oils: The prices of oils have corrected from high levels. The production of Malaysian palm oil in September has decreased, and the export data is conflicting. The US soybean production and supply - demand situation is complex, and the domestic rapeseed oil supply is facing uncertainties. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage of the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract spread [46][51]
期货市场交易指引：2025年09月18日-20250918
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-18 11:37