Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Drive Insufficient [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai nickel futures' closing prices declined, with the active contract's closing price at 121,790 yuan/ton (-820), trading volume at 90,734 lots (-13,858), and open interest at 58,829 lots (-7,709) [2] - LME 3 - month nickel's closing price was $15,250 (-165), trading volume was 6,290 lots ( + 1,202), and the price ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures was 7.89 (-0.05) [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai stainless steel futures' closing prices were mostly down, with the active contract's closing price at 12,840 yuan/ton (-12), trading volume at 170,126 lots (-60,650), and open interest at 127,750 lots (-3,036) [2] Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 122,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 990 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 915 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 26 tons to 26,167 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 2,034 tons to 228,468 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory decreased by 480 tons to 95,265 tons [2] Group 3: Industry News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's Q2 2025 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea produced 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal ( + 22.87% YoY) and 787 tons of cobalt metal, with MHP nickel sales volume at 7,846 tons ( + 27.93% YoY) and cobalt sales volume at 719 tons [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Nickel Market - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased; nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, September's domestic production schedule increased, Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased; September's domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded [2] - Demand: Ternary production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - Inventory: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2] - Outlook: After the Fed's rate cut, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] Stainless Steel Market - Supply: September's stainless steel production schedule increased [2] - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2] - Cost: High - nickel pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2] - Outlook: Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For nickel, the strategy is to short on rallies [2] - For stainless steel, the suggestion is to wait and see [2]
镍与不锈钢日评:降息落地,上行驱动不足-20250918
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-18 11:54