银行赎回压力大吗？

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on three main aspects of banks' self-operated investment behavior: redemption pressure, interest rate risk on bank balance sheets, and the demand for profit realization at the end of the quarter [2][12] - Overall, the redemption pressure for banks in the current year is expected to be manageable, but there will be differentiation among institutions, with smaller banks facing relatively higher demands [5][26] Summary by Sections 1. Tax Shield Effect - Public funds enjoy tax advantages, but due to poor performance in the bond market this year, fund asset EVA is generally lower by 50-100 basis points compared to government bonds and other assets [3][14] - Historical data shows that during significant adjustments in the bond market, such as in the second half of 2020 and the first half of 2023, banks' fund investment scales have notably decreased [3][19] - National banks have performed well in revenue completion this year, which helps reduce redemption pressure, while smaller banks, particularly rural commercial banks, may face higher redemption demands due to weaker performance in their lending sectors [24][26] 2. Liquidity Management - National banks have a net lending scale exceeding 4 trillion yuan, indicating a strong liquidity position that reduces the need to redeem funds for liquidity management [5][28] - Open-ended public funds are considered low-impact assets for liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) calculations, thus not imposing hard constraints on liquidity management [29] 3. High-Frequency Trading - The proportion of fund investments held for trading purposes is low among major banks, indicating a preference for medium to long-term bond funds [30][33] - The new regulations regarding redemption fees are not expected to significantly impact banks' self-operated fund investment behaviors [34]