软商品日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Pulp: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Sugar: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Apple: Bearish (★☆☆) [1] - Timber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] - Natural Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Bearish (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed bearish based on text) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: Neutral (★★★ in unclear representation, assumed neutral based on text) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, providing insights on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and suggesting corresponding trading strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined significantly, with most cotton spot prices stable. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with potential output exceeding 7 million tons. There are concerns about possible over - pre - sale and potential price hikes from ginneries, but the impact is expected to be manageable. The current hand - picked seed cotton purchase price is around 7.5 yuan/kg, considered high by many ginneries. The pure - cotton yarn market has average trading, with cautious market sentiment and weak downstream orders. Macro factors like Sino - US trade talks and Fed rate cuts are also under consideration. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar continued to fall. Brazil's sugar production is down year - on - year in the short term, but the sugar - alcohol ratio remains high, suggesting potential high sugar - making ratios next year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. Domestic sugar sales are fast, with lower inventory and less pressure. The market focus is on imports and next - season's output, and the impact of weather on the 25/26 season's output is uncertain [3] Apple - Apple futures are oscillating. Early - maturing apples have good demand, but the supply of late - maturing apples in the 25/26 season is expected to be stable, and there is a high expectation of increased cold - storage inventory. It is expected that the futures price will decline in the short term, and a bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - After the Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut, commodity futures prices fell. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - production period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operation rate decreased last week. Chinese tire production and export data show a mixed performance, with overall market conditions being okay. Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao declined, while butadiene rubber inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see due to approaching holidays and low risk - appetite [5] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly, with stable spot prices. Chinese pulp port inventory is high year - on - year, and the August import volume decreased. Domestic inflation is expected to be weak, and PPI shows marginal improvement. Pulp supply is relatively abundant, and demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6] Timber - Timber futures are oscillating, with stable spot prices. Last week's timber arrival volume decreased, and the New Zealand radiata pine price dropped in September. Domestic importers are less willing to import due to high foreign prices. Although demand is entering the peak season, port shipments have not increased significantly. Inventory is low, and the supply - demand situation has improved, but there is limited short - term upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [7]