镍与不锈钢日评：降息落地上行驱动不足-20250918

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Report 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Driving Force Insufficient" [1] Group 2: Nickel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel near - month contract was 121,790 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 90,734 lots, down 13,858 lots; the open interest was 58,829 lots, down 7,709 lots [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,250 dollars/ton, down 165 dollars from the previous day; the electronic - disk closing price was 15,445 dollars/ton, unchanged; the trading volume was 6,290 lots, up 1,202 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai nickel near - month and continuous - first contracts was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spread between the LME nickel 0 - 3 months was - 182.88 dollars/ton [2] - The basis of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price - Shanghai nickel active contract closing price was 990 yuan/ton; the basis of LME 3 - month nickel official price - electronic - disk closing price was - 195 dollars/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,167 tons, down 26 tons; the LME nickel registered warehouse receipts were 214,602 tons, down 220,866 tons; the total LME nickel inventory was 228,468 tons, down 7,602 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. The nickel ore price remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, with increased domestic production scheduling in September and increased production in Indonesia, leading to nickel - iron destocking. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production scheduling decreased, stainless - steel mills' production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. Considering inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased. With the Fed's rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest selling short on rallies [2] Group 3: Stainless - Steel Market Price and Volume - On September 17, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month contract was 12,840 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 170,126 lots, down 60,650 lots; the open interest was 127,750 lots, down 3,036 lots [2] Spread and Basis - The spread between the Shanghai stainless - steel near - month and continuous - first contracts was 20 yuan/ton; the basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price - active contract was 915 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory was 95,265 tons, down 480 tons; last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 96,600 tons, down 15,400 tons [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated at a low level, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. In terms of inventory, the SHFE inventory decreased. On the supply side, stainless - steel production scheduling increased in September. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. In terms of cost, the high - nickel pig iron price and high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2] Trading Strategy - Suggest waiting and seeing [2] Group 4: Company News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's 2025 Q2 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea operated by MCC Group's Ramu Nickel Cobalt had a production of 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal (up 22.87% year - on - year) and 787 tons of cobalt metal in this quarter. The MHP nickel sales volume was 7,846 tons (up 27.93% year - on - year), and the cobalt sales volume was 719 tons. The cash cost of producing MHP and removing by - products in this quarter was 2.68 dollars/pound, equivalent to 5,908 dollars/ton [2]