黑色金属日报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: Not provided - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market has a complex situation with mixed demand and supply factors, and the market is affected by macro - policies and 'anti - involution' [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term due to supply - demand balance and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by cost expectations from policies such as anti - involution and coal production inspections, and there are opportunities for callback buying [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have good demand, but their price highs are restricted by fundamentals, and attention should be paid to 'anti - involution' information [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures declined. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel recovered, production continued to decline, and inventory decreased slightly. The demand for hot - rolled coil declined, production continued to rise, and inventory re - accumulated [1] - High - furnace production has recovered rapidly, and hot - metal production remains high, but poor steel profits limit further production increases. Pay attention to environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [1] - In August, real - estate investment declined more, infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowed, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, market optimism cooled, but the 'anti - involution' policy provided support to the futures [1] Iron Ore - Today, the iron - ore futures fluctuated. Globally, shipments are at a high level, domestic arrivals decreased slightly, and port inventory is stable with no significant short - term pressure to accumulate [2] - Terminal demand is relatively weak, but hot - metal production is high again. Steel mills need to replenish inventory before the holidays, so short - term demand for iron ore is supported [2] - The market expects macro - policies, and the 'anti - involution' policy still affects the futures. The Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations. Short - term iron - ore futures are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] Coke - Coke prices declined today. There is still an expectation of a third round of price cuts, but some coking plants proposed a first - round price increase due to low profits, intensifying the game [3] - Coke inventory increased, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The market expects coal production inspections and 'anti - involution' policies, which are expected to increase coke costs. Coke prices mainly follow coking - coal prices [3] - Carbon supply is abundant, and hot - metal production is high. The futures are at a premium, and prices are greatly affected by 'anti - involution' policy expectations. Short - term callback buying opportunities are recommended [3] Coking Coal - Coking - coal prices declined today. Due to high expectations of production inspections and 'anti - involution' policies, prices are relatively strong [5] - Coking - coal production increased slightly, spot auction transactions weakened, and prices followed the futures down. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, and total inventory increased [5] - Carbon supply is abundant, and hot - metal production is high. The futures are at a premium. Against the background of policy expectations, buying on callbacks is recommended [5] Silicon Manganese - Today, silicon - manganese prices fluctuated strongly. On the demand side, hot - metal production quickly recovered to over 240, and the previous production suspension had little impact [6] - Silicon - manganese weekly production continued to increase, reaching a high level. Inventory did not increase, and both spot and futures demand was good [6] - Manganese - ore forward quotes increased slightly, and spot prices were boosted. Manganese - ore inventory increased slowly. Prices mainly followed the rebound of the black - metal sector, but highs were restricted by fundamentals. Pay attention to 'anti - involution' information [6] Ferrosilicon - Today, ferrosilicon prices fluctuated strongly. On the demand side, hot - metal production quickly recovered to over 240, and the previous production suspension had little impact [7] - Export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. Magnesium - metal production decreased slightly, and secondary demand decreased marginally. Overall demand was okay [7] - Ferrosilicon supply recovered to a high level, market demand for both spot and futures was good, and inventory decreased slightly. Prices mainly followed the rebound of the black - metal sector, but highs were restricted by fundamentals. Pay attention to 'anti - involution' information [7]