Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-18 14:15Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [3][9]. Core Insights - The express delivery business revenue reached 118.96 billion yuan in August, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, while the business volume was 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average revenue per package in August was 7.37 yuan, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [3]. - The report highlights a trend of price increases across various regions, with expectations for continued upward movement in industry pricing, particularly benefiting companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [3]. - The report outlines three scenarios for the future of the industry: 1) Profit recovery leading to significant dividends while ensuring courier rights, 2) Continued competitive pressure in certain regions, and 3) Potential for mergers and acquisitions to optimize supply [3]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - YTO Express achieved a business volume of 5.39 billion pieces in August, a year-on-year increase of 9.82%, with a single ticket revenue of 2.15 yuan, down 1.13% [3]. - Shentong Express reported a business volume of 4.43 billion pieces, up 14.47% year-on-year, with a single ticket revenue of 2.06 yuan, an increase of 3.0% [3]. - Yunda Holdings completed a business volume of 4.12 billion pieces, a 5.16% year-on-year increase, with a single ticket revenue of 1.92 yuan, down 3.52% [3]. Price Trends - The report notes that the price increases in the express delivery sector are becoming more widespread, with various regions, including Jiangsu and Hubei, announcing price hikes [3]. - The report anticipates that the average industry price will continue to rise in September, contributing to profit recovery for major players [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on Shentong Express for its high elasticity, YTO Express for its competitive strength, and J&T Express for its growth potential in Southeast Asia [3]. - It also suggests keeping an eye on Zhongtong Express and Yunda Holdings for their performance in the upcoming quarterly reports [3].