存单：Q3无近忧、Q4有顾虑

Group 1 - The report indicates that since June, the interbank certificate of deposit (CD) rates have remained stable within a narrow range of 1.6%-1.7%, despite an increase in the maturity scale of CDs [2][10][20] - The net financing of CDs has been negative from June to August, which deviates from the significant price increase observed in the first quarter and historical trends [13][20] - The report highlights that the supply of CDs has been weak, partly due to substantial liquidity injections by the central bank during June to August, which alleviated funding pressure on the liability side [20][22] Group 2 - The supply of CDs is closely linked to their maturity, with a significant amount maturing in September at approximately 3.5 trillion yuan, followed by a decrease in the fourth quarter [29][31] - Factors influencing the supply of CDs in the fourth quarter include the central bank's liquidity injections, credit issuance, and the usage of regulatory quotas [31][32] - The report notes that the demand for active liabilities may increase due to the concentration of high-interest deposits maturing in the fourth quarter, potentially leading banks to issue more CDs to cover funding gaps [34][36] Group 3 - The report suggests that the transition of funds from high-interest deposits to asset management products may increase instability in the liability side and amplify fluctuations in CD rates [36] - Despite the potential for increased demand for CDs, the market's capacity to absorb these may vary, leading to a situation where CD rates experience greater volatility [36] - Overall, the central bank's supportive stance and the steady recovery of real credit demand suggest that the pressure for significant price increases in CDs may remain manageable, with the one-year CD rate expected to stay within the 1.6%-1.7% range [36]