资产配置日报：临门怯步-20250918

Market Performance - On September 18, both the stock and bond markets experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3831.66, down 1.15% [1][2] - The trading volume in the stock market reached 3.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 763.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a significant sell-off [2] Stock Market Analysis - The stock market showed a high open but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly reaching 3899.96 points before facing strong selling pressure [2] - The decline in major indices, except for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, suggests a healthy adjustment rather than a shift to pessimism, as implied by the drop in implied volatility [2] - The technology sector attempted a rebound, with the Sci-Tech 50 index rising by 0.72%, indicating a preference for technology stocks amidst the broader market decline [3] Bond Market Insights - The bond market saw a rise in yields, particularly in the long-end, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds reaching 1.78% and 2.07%, respectively [5][6] - The afternoon sell-off in equities provided a reason for the bond market to restart buying, although investor caution remained evident in pricing [6] Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market experienced a general downturn, with significant declines in glass, coking coal, and pure alkali, which fell by 2.2%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, respectively [7] - Precious metals also faced selling pressure, with domestic silver and gold dropping by 1.94% and 1.78% [7][8] - The coking coal market showed signs of stabilization due to supply and demand dynamics, with production recovering and inventory levels decreasing [8] Livestock Sector Developments - The livestock sector is undergoing stricter production controls, with recent policies aimed at reducing the breeding sow population, which may improve the long-term supply dynamics [9] - Despite the potential for improved supply conditions, short-term pressures remain due to concentrated market releases [9] Investment Sentiment - The overall market sentiment has shifted towards risk aversion following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, leading to a phase of profit-taking in various sectors [9] - The focus is expected to shift from policy expectations to real-world validations, with industry logic likely to dominate future market movements [9]