中辉有色观点-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - Basic Logic: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - Industrial Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - Industrial Logic: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].