工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250918

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The industrial silicon market is currently in a high - level consolidation phase. Supply is increasing steadily, with some previously - shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang resuming production and enterprises in the southwest region increasing their operations due to low - cost electricity in the wet season. Demand is mixed, with potential demand from some silicon material plants'复产 but limited downstream inventory - building willingness. Considering supply disturbances and potential production cuts by polysilicon enterprises, short - term silicon prices may remain high, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline [1]. - The polysilicon market is also in high - level consolidation. Supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions. Demand has increased in the short term, with significant trading volume and inventory reduction. However, due to high downstream raw material inventory and pressure on terminal demand, there is pressure on further price increases [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,600 yuan/ton. The futures main contract's closing price rose 0.56% to 8,965 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang resume production and southwest enterprises increase operations. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations; and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - Investment Strategy: Suggest interval operation, continue to hold out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse spreads. Be cautious of potential price drops [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: N - type dense material rose 0.10% to 51.05 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material rose 0.10% to 52.55 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material rose 0.10% to 50.05 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract's closing price fell 0.34% to 53,490 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to increase slightly after offsetting production cuts and new capacity additions. Demand has increased in the short term, with significant trading volume and inventory reduction, but terminal demand is under pressure [1]. - Investment Strategy: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly testing long positions on price dips [1]. Industry News - Italy received nearly 12GW of renewable energy project applications in its first competitive tender under the FER - X transitional ministerial order, including 10.09GW of photovoltaic and 1.67GW of wind power. Only 8GW of photovoltaic and 2.5GW of wind power will be auctioned, and the results will be announced on December 11, 2025. Italy also launched a second round of expression of interest (EOI) for photovoltaic projects using non - Chinese - made components, with a scale of 200MW - 1.6GW [1].