中辉期货豆类油脂日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term Decline: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term trend is downward. Soybean meal is under short - term bearish pressure, but the continuous decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues. Rapeseed meal is affected by trade policies and high inventory, with its trend mainly following soybean meal [1]. - Short - term Consolidation: Palm oil and soybean oil are in short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a bullish fundamental outlook but is affected by the variable US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy and the approaching soybean harvest, with sufficient domestic supply [1]. - Oscillating Bullish: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillating trend, supported by the Sino - Canadian trade dispute and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted [1]. - Cautiously Bullish: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply side is pressured by the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the domestic market is in a tight pattern before new cotton is listed, and the USDA's downward adjustment of China's new - year stock - to - use ratio is bullish [1]. - Cautiously Bearish: Jujube is cautiously bearish. Considering the current production forecast and carry - over inventory, there is pressure when new jujubes are listed. There may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - Cautiously Bullish: For live hogs, the short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Varieties Soybean Meal - Market Conditions: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.82 million tons. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan from the previous day [2][3]. - Analysis: The USDA's September supply - demand report showed an increase in US soybean production and ending stocks, which was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish, but the decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Conditions: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons [6]. - Analysis: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is low due to low imports, but the demand is weak. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still has a long way to go, and the bullish impact is limited. The trend follows soybean meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - Market Conditions: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22 million tons. Malaysia's August palm oil ending inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month [9]. - Analysis: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the palm oil market, but the variable US biodiesel policy may suppress its performance. There are short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [1]. Cotton - Market Conditions: As of the reporting period, the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 66.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.6% to 38% [10][12]. - Analysis: The supply side of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is under pressure, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The domestic market is tight before new cotton is listed, and there is support at the bottom of the short - term disk [1]. Jujube - Market Conditions: The main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.514% to 10815 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week [14][16]. - Analysis: The weather - related speculation window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually easing. After new jujubes are listed, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. There are opportunities to sell short on rebounds [1]. Live Hogs - Market Conditions: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 1.59% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic live hog spot price increased by 0.23% to 13320 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live hog inventory increased by 0.51% to 3782.4 million, and the出栏量 increased by 2.39% to 1117.72 million heads [17][18]. - Analysis: The short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time, with strategies such as selling short on rebounds or 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and looking for long - buying opportunities for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].