Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 18, 2025, the soybean oil futures continuously declined with a drop of 1.64%. Multiple unfavorable factors led to the decline, and the subsequent trend should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [3][4]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue high - level volatile adjustment in the short term [7]. - Gold is expected to be adjusted for some time after closing with a mid -阴线 due to the so - called "buy on rumor, sell on news" effect after the Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut [11][12]. - Iron ore may be supported by restocking. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range volatile range and should be treated with a volatile mindset [15][16]. - Glass continues to adjust today, and attention should be paid to the support level of the lower platform. The downstream deep - processing orders' recovery is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [19][20]. - High inventory of soybean oil suppresses the price increase space, and it should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [23]. - Pulp in Shandong maintains stable prices, with port inventory starting to decline slightly. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet. It is maintained at a low - level volatile view, and high - selling and low - buying within the range can be considered [27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Supply side: The domestic soybean arrival volume remains high, the oil mill operating rate is at a high level in recent years, and the actual crushing volume last week reached 2.3039 million tons. The soybean supply is sufficient, leading to increased soybean oil output. The port soybean inventory has increased to 9.661 million tons, and the soybean oil commercial inventory has continuously increased, reaching 1.2513 million tons as of September 5, a month - on - month increase of 12,500 tons [4]. - Demand side: There is not much new demand currently. Although some groups have started small - package stocking, the external sales of bulk oil have decreased, and it is not yet the time for the concentrated release of Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking demand, so the demand side has insufficient support for prices [4]. - International market: The US soybean futures have been running weakly, weakening the support for domestic soybean oil [4]. Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened lower in the morning, rose rapidly, then fell back at noon, and suddenly dived in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid -阴线 [7][8]. - News: The Fed announced its first 25 - basis - point rate cut in 2025 as expected, and the securities trading stamp duty in August increased by 226% year - on - year [7]. Gold - The Fed's normal 25 - basis - point rate cut, in line with market expectations, led to a general decline in the commodity market, and gold closed with a mid -阴线 [12]. Iron Ore - Supply side: The shipping is stable. Recently, steel mills show signs of gradually resuming production, and the hot metal is expected to remain at a high level [16]. - Demand side: Approaching the National Day in the middle and late period, steel mills' restocking may support the raw materials [15][16]. Glass - Supply side: The daily melting is basically stable, and the factory inventory has slightly declined [20]. - Demand side: The recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [20]. Pulp - Market situation: The pulp price in Shandong today remains stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - to - high level. It is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season but has not improved yet [27].
金信期货日刊-20250919
Jin Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-18 23:30