美联储9月议息会议点评：“快降息”与“慢降息”

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's September interest - rate decision was to cut the interest - rate range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the dot - plot implies two more possible rate cuts this year. The new member Milan opposed the decision and wanted a 50 - basis - point cut [5] - The main difference between the "dovish" and mainstream views within the Fed lies in the speed of rate cuts. The "dovish" view advocates "early and fast" rate cuts, while the mainstream view is for a steady rate cut with a somewhat front - loaded characteristic [4][9] - Both the mainstream and "dovish" views believe that the US job market faces a risk of faster cooling, and a relatively large rate - cut amplitude is needed to hedge this risk [4][10] - The main risk to the US job market may come from the real - estate market. High interest rates may suppress the real - estate market and lead to a decline in construction employment [4][10][14] - If the market believes in the Fed's "slow rate cut", it may achieve the effect of a "fast rate cut"; if the market believes in the "fast rate cut", it may lead to a "slow rate cut" [2][4][17] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - On the early morning of September 18 (Beijing time), the Fed announced its September interest - rate decision. The FOMC voted 11 - 1 to cut the interest - rate range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, and the dot - plot implies two more possible rate cuts this year. New member Milan voted against and wanted a 50 - basis - point cut [5] Analysis of the Fed's Internal Views - The September meeting is significant as it shows the "dovish" view on interest - rate expectations. The new member Milan makes the vote and dot - plot better reflect the divergence between the "dovish" and mainstream views [4][6] - The "dovish" view and the mainstream view mainly differ in the speed of rate cuts. The "dovish" view is "early and fast" rate cuts, while the mainstream view is a steady rate cut. In the long - term, the "dovish" view has 1 - 2 more 25 - basis - point rate cuts than the mainstream view [4][9] Analysis of the US Job Market - Both the mainstream and "dovish" views think the US job market faces a risk of faster cooling, and a relatively large rate - cut amplitude is needed to hedge this risk [4][10] - The main risk to the US job market may come from the real - estate market. Since the "subprime mortgage crisis", the private - sector non - farm employment in the US has shown different trends in production and service employment. Service - type employment has been rising, while production - type employment has not recovered to pre - crisis levels [10] - In production - type employment, manufacturing employment is lower than pre - crisis levels and lags behind the expansion of manufacturing production. Construction employment has exceeded pre - crisis levels and has grown significantly after the pandemic. High interest rates may suppress the real - estate market and lead to a decline in construction employment [11][14] Market Scenarios - After the meeting, if the market believes in the Fed's "slow rate cut", it may achieve the effect of a "fast rate cut"; if the market believes in the "fast rate cut", it may lead to a "slow rate cut" [4][17] - Under the "slow rate cut" expectation, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may not decline rapidly, which will affect the decline of US mortgage rates, further impact the real - estate market, and increase the risk of a decline in construction employment, leading to a "fast rate cut" in fact. Under the "fast rate cut" expectation, a rapid decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may lead to a short - term recovery of the real - estate market, and the logic of cooling the job market and inflation may not be smooth, resulting in a "slow rate cut" [17]